THE HOUSE
The Battle in Pennsylvania Isn't Just for President
By CARL HULSE - NYT
MERWYN, Pa., Oct. 20 - Representative Jim Gerlach is just the sort of Republican whom Democrats must beat to have any hope of recapturing the House.
His district, which stretches from the Main Line suburbs north of Philadelphia to the manufacturing city of Reading, narrowly backed Al Gore for president in 2000 despite a Republican edge in voter registration. Mr. Gerlach is ending his first term, typically the moment when House incumbents are most at risk.
And Democrats have recruited a strong challenger, Lois Murphy, 41, a lawyer and party activist who has used her connections in Pennsylvania and Washington political circles to mount a sophisticated campaign that has roughed up Mr. Gerlach through television advertisements and mailings.
Yet Mr. Gerlach retains the edge in polls, illustrating the task confronting Democrats as they try to unseat a dozen or so Republican lawmakers in swing districts around the nation as part of their drive to win back the House. Determined to hold on to power, Republicans have rallied around the incumbents, and Mr. Gerlach said that he is confident of victory, though he acknowledges the race could be tight.
"We have a competitive district, and it is going to close a little bit more," said Mr. Gerlach, 49, a former state legislator. "But at the same time, we like where we are."
The fight for the Sixth District is just one of the competitive House races in Pennsylvania, where two seats being vacated by Republicans and another by a Democrat are being contested, along with a Senate seat.
The high level of activity has made Pennsylvania, which is central to the presidential campaign, crucial to determining control of Congress as well. In some respects, it is the Democratic version of Texas, where redistricting has Republicans gunning for seats held by Democrats.
It is hard to see how Democrats could cut into the Republican advantage in the House without gains here and in Connecticut, where Democrats are taking aim at two Republican incumbents, calculating that Northeastern voters can be persuaded to toss out lawmakers who help conservative House leaders advance their agenda.
"He is a reliable vote if they need to twist arms," Ms. Murphy said of her opponent, and she does not miss an opportunity to point out that Mr. Gerlach sides with the House leadership more than 90 percent of the time.
Democrats have not pinned all their hopes on the Northeast. They are also going after incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nevada and New Mexico in hopes that they can beat enough of them to gain the dozen House seats over all needed to claim the speaker's gavel.
The Democrats say 16 House Republicans have not broken the 50 percent mark in polls, a measure of vulnerability in a political climate where surveys indicate general voter dissatisfaction with the Republican-led House.
Pennsylvania figures prominently in the Democratic strategy, its importance enhanced by the fact that Senator John Kerry is running strongly in the state.
Besides Mr. Gerlach's seat, three others are considered to be in play, including two that represent parts of Philadelphia and the suburbs: the 8th District seat being vacated by Jim Greenwood, a Republican who is retiring, and the 13th District seat opened up by the decision of Joseph M. Hoeffel, a Democrat, to run for the Senate. The other seat, the 15th centered in Allentown, belonged to Pat Toomey, a Republican who lost his Senate bid in the primary to the incumbent, Arlen Specter.
Party strategists and independent analysts say Democrats appear to have a leg up in holding the 13th District, while Republicans are favored in the 15th, and the 6th is considered leaning Republican though within reach of a Democratic upset.
Mr. Gerlach said recent polls by his campaign have shown him with a healthy lead, though he and his opponent agree the contest could be heavily influenced by turnout for the presidential race. They see high voter intensity on both sides.
Led by Gov. Edward G. Rendell, state Democrats are pouring money into an extensive get-out-the-vote effort in the suburbs in a push to deliver the state to Mr. Kerry.
"This suburban area is critical to winning or losing Pennsylvania," said Ms. Murphy, who was a county campaign chairman for Mr. Rendell in his 2002 race, earning her strong support from him this year. Mr. Gerlach has important friends of his own and has appeared with President Bush in some of his frequent trips to the state. He said his polls showed Mr. Bush leading in the district.
The Republican and Democratic House campaign organizations are each weighing in with least $1 million in television advertising in the fight, evidence that both parties consider the race crucial. Republican ads have attacked Ms. Murphy for the support she has received from liberal advocacy groups; Democrats hit Mr. Gerlach for his opposition to abortion and on environmental issues. Mr. Gerlach expects to spend $2 million, and Ms. Murphy has raised more than $1.3 million.
Mr. Gerlach has sought to defuse the charge that he is a foot soldier for the Republican leadership by pointing to his votes against the Constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage and against oil drilling in an Alaska wildlife refuge as examples of where he broke with his party.
Ms. Murphy is not buying it. "Most of those votes where he split, the legislation was going to fail anyway," she said, asserting that Mr. Gerlach was out of sync with the moderate sentiments of a district that has been gaining Democratic voters.
Mr. Gerlach is also playing the incumbent card, cutting the ribbon at the new headquarters of a fledgling energy company after helping it win $1 million from the Pentagon for its work on fuel cell technology.
"She has not done one thing for these communities, and we have," said Mr. Gerlach, who noted that he had survived close races in the past. "She will get her message across, and we will get our message across and just leave it up to the voters."
Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company |
