You call what our economy is in a recovery ? I don't. My portfolio has diminished under Bush. The price of oil is at an all time high and the following article will give you some realistic insight into the mess we are in. Besides which we have the largest deficit every recorded. Spend Spend spend.
I was a conservative REPUBLICAN.. Believe it or not. I believe in less government. More individual freedoms. The government keeping it's nose out of bedrooms and lastly A BIG SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE. DO we have that now ?
Dollar Has Longest Losing Streak Since December 2000 on Oil
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined for the ninth consecutive day against the euro, the longest losing streak since December 2000, on concern record oil prices will slow U.S. economic growth.
The U.S. currency also traded 1.1 percent from its all-time low against the euro after European Commission President Romano Prodi said the EURO'S advance is helping offset rising oil costs without damping exports growth. U.S. reports this week may show consumer confidence and business activity in the Chicago region fell this month, according to Bloomberg surveys.
``Sentiment for the dollar is just bad,' said Osamu Takashima, chief analyst of the currency and treasury division in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., a unit of Japan's second- biggest lender. ``Speculation that a rising oil price will hurt the economy and that capital inflows to the U.S. will slow are hurting the dollar.'
Against the euro, the dollar fell to $1.2767 at 7:51 a.m. in London from $1.2682 late Friday in New York, according to electronic foreign-exchange trading system EBS.
The U.S. currency traded as low as $1.2793, the lowest since Feb. 18, when it reached a record $1.2930. The dollar also dropped to 106.79 yen, from 107.26.
The dollar has tended to decline versus the euro when oil advances, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the past three months, the correlation between oil and the dollar is minus 0.82, measuring the coincidence of closing gains and declines on a scale of -1, meaning prices move opposite each other, to 1, meaning they move in lockstep.
`Just Started'
The dollar has traded weaker than today's low on only five days since the European currency's debut in 1999.
``Certainly the euro is very high, but it's not true that European trade is bad,' Prodi said in an interview in Brussels. The euro's advance ``has been some sort of protection' against oil costs.
Crude oil for December delivery rose as high as a record $55.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was trading at $55.49 at 2:14 p.m. Singapore time, up 85 percent in the past year.
``This move down in the dollar has just started,' said Richard Yetsenga, a currency strategist in Sydney at Deutsche Bank AG. It may fall to $1.28 per euro this week, he said.
Weekly Survey
Sixty-three percent of the investors, analysts and traders polled Oct. 22 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro, the most in five months. The survey also indicated the dollar will drop versus the yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.
The U.S. Conference Board's gauge of consumer sentiment in October probably fell to 94, the lowest since May, from 96.8 in September, according to the median forecast of 45 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The report is scheduled for tomorrow.
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago may say its business activity index dropped to 59 in October from 61.3 in September. The release is scheduled for Oct. 29.
Gains in Japan's currency to the strongest in six months prompted concern Japan may sell its currency to stem the advance. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Oct. 22 that Japan will ``take necessary action' if the currency moves in a speculative manner.
`Take it Seriously'
``We've had some statements from Japanese officials, and if they say they're going to do something, you've got to take it seriously,' said Jake Moore, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc. ``The pace of the dollar's decline is raising eyebrows, and has the potential to cause short-term pain to companies.'
The yen's gain accelerated when it rose beyond 107 per dollar, a level where automatic orders to buy the Japanese currency and sell the dollar were placed, according to Hideyuki Tsukamoto, foreign-exchange manager in Tokyo at Mizuho Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's biggest lender. Traders often place pre-set orders to limit losses in the event their bets go the wrong way.
The yen's advance may be limited after the Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped as much as 2.6 percent. The benchmark index had two straight losing weeks through Oct. 22.
``With the Nikkei's sluggish performance, I don't really see any reason to buy the yen aggressively,' Mizuho's Tsukamoto said. ``It's a dollar-selling market, but the yen may see some pull-back today in Asia when the Japanese stock market has declines.' The yen's gains may stall near 106.50 per dollar and the currency may fall to around 107.50 in Asia, he said.
Forecasts Cut
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., UBS AG, Bank of America Corp., BNP Paribas SA and Barclays Capital cut their forecasts for the dollar last week.
The banks pared estimates after the Treasury Department said on Oct. 18 that foreign investors bought a net $59 billion of U.S. Treasuries, corporate debt and stocks in August, the least in 10 months.
``Concern about capital flows into the U.S. have increased,' said Robert Sinche, head of currency strategy in New York at Bank of America Corp., the third-largest U.S. bank. ``You've got lackluster equity returns.'
Bank of America expects the dollar to trade between $1.22 and $1.32 per euro in the first six months of 2005, weaker than an earlier forecast of $1.18 to $1.25.
``It's difficult to see the negative dollar sentiment turning around,' said Allison Montgomery, a currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp. ``Not unless we see an improvement in the economic data, which doesn't look likely.'
The dollar may fall to a record against the euro in the next several weeks, Montgomery said.
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