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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54794)	10/25/2004 4:33:18 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

Jay, I am looking at all the commodities up in USD and now all the currencies up as well and one item sticks out. Gold. How long before that gets fixed? Kitco reporting trades under $430 but Bloomberg has been reporting $430+. I think it will take a few tries to make that definite cross. I have taken a little from my oil positions and deployed in PM, because it will be so exciting. David

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54794)	10/27/2004 12:30:16 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<I understand oil is moving further away from Maurice's USD 2/barrel target price :0)> Jay, that's a slight exaggeration. But it's fair to say oil has to go through a major price decline, I guess to the $20 realm, before it heads off millions of competitors for energy consumers' dollars. Oil's market share of GDP is dropping every day. Energy consumption is rising every day. Insulation and efficiency are increasing every day. Meanwhile, oil sellers are making a mega-fortune. They will go shopping in a big way. They will buy lots of CDMA and military capability. Al Q will perhaps find more money coming their way too so they can do more to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. It's time to start shorting oil. What's less certain is how high oil will go before it goes into decline again. As the Biotelecosmictechdot.com boom showed, prices can go very high before objective reality reasserts itself and perceived reality is brought back into harmony. All over the place, people are coming up with bright new ideas to use something other than oil to do what they want done. ElM is promoting ethanol, with good reason. There are many other options at $55 a barrel. Moving closer to work is another. Smaller vehicles another. Methanol-powered fuel cells another. Photovoltaics another. Good old fissionable uranium is being brought back to life. Fusionable hydrogen might yet be brought to life [on Earth, not just in the some]. Earth's population might drop due to H5N1 by 20%. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are holding their ground while the QCommie realm is retrenching = maybe no gloating for a while now. It was fun while it lasted. But look at the beautiful curves behind the QCOM share price cdg.org Note especially the growth in CDMA over the last 2 years, when 3G started to take off. Note too that 3G has really only got going in the past few months as FOMA and others took a while to get their systems tuned up and gadgets ready to rumble and that process is accelerating, with, for example, Telecom New Zealand and Vodafone both about to launch their 3G systems. Vodafone has been all GSM until now. When they get their W-CDMA [aka 3GSM] going, they'll be increasingly all CDMA. The same pattern is happening around the world. With only 250 million people currently using CDMA systems, and heading for 2 billion worldwide wireless users, 3g.co.uk and more coming on stream every day, with 6 billion people as prospective users [give or take a billion], and technology leaping ahead so there's constant demand for the latest and greatest, the market is far from saturated. People will have two or three devices and there will be machine to machine devices too, so there will be 20 billion CDMA devices one of these days. Or more. Once machine to machine gets going, the sky isn't the limit. The fun has just begun. Mqurice