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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (13975)	10/25/2004 10:46:43 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

German govt sees 2005 GDP growth 1.7 pct vs expected 1.8 pct this yr Monday, October 25, 2004 1:54:26 PM afxpress.com BERLIN (AFX) - The German government is expecting GDP growth of 1.7 pct next year but is keeping its official forecast range of 1.5-2.0 pct, Economy and Labour Minister Wolfgang Clement told a news conference He said GDP growth this year is forecast at 1.8 pct, with exports as the main driver of growth He said when adjusted for the number of working days, GDP growth this year is at 1.3 pct and 1.9 pct next year. The number of working days next year is less than this year The labour market is also expected to improve next year, with the jobless figure declining slightly, he added Clement spoke to reporters to present the ministry's report on the economy In its report, the ministry forecasts next year's expenditure from private households to grow by 0.8 pct after posting no growth this year It said income tax deductions, lower compulsory contributions to the health insurance system, as well as an improvement in the labour market should help encourage private consumption next year State expenditure will be lower by 0.2 pct after rising 0.1 pct this year, it said Exports are forecast to improve by 8.0 pct compared with 11.2 pct this year, while imports will be higher by 7.9 pct from 7.0 pct

To: Chispas who wrote (13975)	10/25/2004 10:50:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

BoE´s Lambert says pressure of demand on inflation may be less than expected Monday, October 25, 2004 12:00:47 PM afxpress.com BoE's Lambert says pressure of demand on inflation may be less than expected GLASGOW, Scotland (AFX) - Economic growth in the UK may not have as much of an impact on inflation as had been expected, Bank of England official, Richard Lambert said Lambert, one of the nine member Monetary Policy Committee, told the Institute of Chartered Accountants that economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year are unlikely to match the very strong performance of the second "So the pressure of demand may turn out to be less intense than might have been expected," he said In a wide-ranging speech seeking to explain why inflationary pressures in the UK remain subdued, the former editor of the Financial Times newspaper also said price pressures seem quite muted in the supply chain, despite surging oil prices "Unless oil prices spiral ahead even further, which of course remains a risk, they are not going to have a huge impact on overall inflation going forward," he said He explained that the price of oil in real terms is still "well below" the levels of previous peaks and that the UK has become much more efficient in the use of energy "And so long as people continue to believe that inflation will remain low and stable, the secondary impact of rising oil prices, on wage for example, or the price of industrial goods, should be limited," he added Overall, Lambert said consumer price inflation is likely to remain low, at around the 1.1 pct recorded in September, over the rest of 2004, despite oil prices and above trend economic growth "Inflation is indeed low and stable in the UK and is set to remain so despite some violent swings in the price of individual goods and services," he said "The likely path of inflation over the coming year is, however, uncertain," he added Globalisation, new technology, deregulation and changes in the labour market have all contributed to an era of low and stable inflation across the developed world, as has much improved management of monetary policy, said Lambert Despite the surprisingly benign inflation outlook, Lambert cautioned about the impact on prices by the recent weakness in sterling and the market's lower interest rate expectations The labour market, he said, will play a big part in determining the path of prices in the months and years ahead The tone of the labour market seems to have changed in the last few months, with pay pressures appearing to flatten out, said Lambert "The market still looks tight, but for some reason doesn't seem to be getting any tighter," he added. Lambert's speech comes ahead of the central bank's publication of its latest quarterly Inflation Report next month A raft of weak economic data in recent weeks has convinced most Bank watchers that the rate-setting body will keep its key repo rate unchanged at 4.75 pct at November's rate-setting meeting The MPC has raised the cost of borrowing a quarter point on five occasions since last November in an attempt to curb inflationary pressures stemming from rampant consumer demand, particularly in the housing market, and above-trend economic growth

To: Chispas who wrote (13975)	10/25/2004 12:16:06 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on gold cots Date: Mon Oct 25 2004 10:51 trotsky (gurk, 7:37) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, the commercials sell into every rise in the PoG, but one needs to keep in mind that everything they have already sold can not influence the market anymore - only the future actions of market participants can. so it is more important to focus on the net positions of the speculators, since they hold a big long position that will at some point have to be sold down in order to take profits. therefore a gold rally's durability depends on whether the speculator position is in 'strong' or 'weak' hands. in this context it's noteworthy that there seems to be a certain 'base position' size that definitely IS in the hands of strong position players, since it has been kept constant throughout the ups and downs since late '01. judging from the contract's history since then, i estimate this position to be about 65,000 - 80,000 contracts, while the long exposure in excess of this represents more short term oriented, 'technical' money, i.e. funds committed only as long as a certain set of technical conditions prevails. note btw. that the hedgers tends to be more eager to sell in the early stages of rallies and near the extremes at the end of rallies. they often become less enthusiastic sellers following technical break-outs.