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Politics : John Kerry for President? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: American Spirit who wrote (3022)10/25/2004 2:52:38 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Respond to of 3515
 
Bush Has 48% to Kerry's 45% in Daily Zogby Poll (Update1)

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush leads Senator John Kerry by 3 percentage points in the daily Reuters/Zogby poll. A Washington Post survey released yesterday showed the two candidates in a statistical tie.

Bush is backed by 48 percent of 1,204 likely voters questioned Oct. 22-24 by Zogby, and Kerry, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, is supported by 45 percent. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Reuters/Zogby polls over the previous three days showed Bush up 2 points. Five percent of likely voters remain undecided.

Bush had backing from 49 percent of 1,638 likely voters the Post polled Oct. 20-23, and Kerry had 48 percent. The poll's margin of error is 3 percentage points.

With eight days until the election, most national polls, including one released Oct. 23 by Newsweek, show the race statistically tied.

The tally in the Electoral College determines who wins. These votes are apportioned among the states based on congressional representation. State polls show neither candidate has amassed the 270 needed to win.

State Polls

Zogby telephone surveys Oct. 21-24 of about 600 likely voters in each of 10 closely contested states show the candidates statistically tied in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Together those states have 89 electoral votes.

Bush is up by 5 points in Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, and 5 points in New Mexico, which has 5 electoral votes. Kerry leads by 10 points in Michigan, which has 17 electoral votes. Each poll has an error margin of 4.1 percent.

A review of state polls shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Utah, with 173 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 13 states, including New York and Oregon, with 188 electoral votes. In 16 states that have 177 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Florida, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.

In the Newsweek magazine poll Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent among 880 likely voters surveyed Oct. 21-22. The spread is within the poll's 4-point error margin.

A Time magazine poll released yesterday found almost half of registered voters are very or somewhat concerned that vote fraud and problems with counting ballots will mean the winner of the Nov. 2 election won't be legitimate.

The tracking polls by Reuters/Zogby and the Post are conducted daily and the results are a rolling average of three or four days' worth of results. A portion of the total sample is interviewed each day. The earliest results are dropped when a new day is added.

Zogby International is based in Utica, New York. Reuters Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded provider of financial information, is based in London.