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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (80950)	10/26/2004 5:00:57 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793914

NEW REPUBLIC BLOG - UNEXPECTED KERRY WEAKNESSES, NEW JERSEY EDITION: Most New Jersey polls (see, for example, here) now show John Kerry with a lead in the mid-to-high single digits after having been up only a few points in late September. But given that Al Gore won the state by 16 points in 2000, that's still a little surprising. What could have caused the unexpected tightening? The standard explanation has to do with the scandals plaguing the state Democratic Party and the still-fresh memory of 9/11 (even fresher since the GOP spent its entire convention dwelling on that memory across the river in New York City). But there may be another factor at work here: Jews. In particular, Orthodox Jews and recent Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe and Russia. As I noted in a piece this summer, the Bush campaign believes it can make significant inroads among these groups by highlighting Bush's staunch support for Israel, his general hawkishness, and his support for proposals dear to the hearts of religious Jews, like vouchers and funding for faith-based social programs. New Jersey, as it happens, has one of the highest concentrations of Orthodox and Eastern European Jews in the country. What's the evidence for this proposition? Here's an e-mail I got from a Bush campaign official describing some recent New Jersey events packed with Orthodox and Russian Jews. He's obviously a partisan source, but his observations are at least suggestive of what might be going on: I spoke in Englewood, Teaneck, and West Orange and had large turnouts and enthusiastic receptions. The few people that told me they were on the fence going in told me they were on board afterwards. I told the audiences about the Jewish concept of Hakarat Hatov-- or recognition of the good that someone has done for you--and described President Bush's strong stands in favor of Israel, against anti-Semitism, and in fighting the War on Terror. It may not be enough to turn the election. I doubt if it's even enough to put New Jersey in the Bush column (which, by some counts, would be the same thing). But it's the kind of thing that makes you sweat if you're an anxious Democrat. UPDATE: On the other hand, there's this from today's Hotline: Aggressive voter registration drives and a presidential campaign that has "deeply stirred the electorate" have pushed the number of registered voters in NJ "above 5 million for the first time," state officials announced on 10/25. When the election takes place, 5,005,959 NJ residents will be eligible to vote -- 464,027 more than last year, according to final figures provided by the state Division of Elections. Not since '28, when state voter rolls jumped by 465,825 in one year, have there been more newly registered voters, according to statistics from past elections. NJ AG Peter Harvey (D) -- the state's chief elections officer -- credited the upsurge in part on a federally funded effort to encourage residents to register and show up at the polls. He said the state used a $1.2M fed. grant to run a series of "nonpartisan, public service television and radio commercials" featuring celebrities including Michael Douglas, Queen Latifah and Jimmy Fallon. In addition, the AG's Office held several voter registration events, including a Hip Hop Summit, and registration drives at colleges and Giants Stadium. Harvey said he hopes "at least 80 percent" of all registered voters show up Election Day: "I'd love to see New Jersey have the highest-percentage voter turnout in the union and make it a matter of New Jersey pride" (Donohue, Newark Star-Ledger, 10/26). As one Democratic consultant points out in an e-mail: "They all can't be Jews."