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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (14096)	10/26/2004 7:58:05 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 116555

DO YOU BELIEVE IN MAGIC? By CONRAD De AENLLE The magic number on Nov.2 is 270. That's how many Electoral College votes are needed to win the presidency. On Nov.1, the magic number may be 10,290.28. That was the level of the Dow Jones industrial average two months before Election Day, and it may foretell the ballot's outcome. On the 16 occasions since 1900 in which the Dow rose in the two months before a presidential election, the incumbent won 15 times, James Stack, editor of InvesTech Market Analyst, said in its Sept. 24 issue. In the 10 instances when the Dow fell, the challenger seized the White House nine times. As things stand today, the indicator would suggest that Senator John Kerry will defeat President Bush next month. The Dow closed on Friday at 9,757.81. The relationship between the stock market's course in the run-up to an election and the election's outcome may be a "statistical fluke or numerical nonsense," Mr. Stack said. Still, he added, "we wouldn't bet against any market relationship that has enjoyed a 92.3 percent success rate."