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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (62938)	10/26/2004 10:44:55 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Newspaper Picks: An Analysis of the 2004 Endorsements So Far __________________________ By Greg Mitchell Editor & Publisher Published: October 26, 2004 3:20 PM EDT NEW YORK When the smoke clears next Wednesday (if it does) will anyone say that newspaper endorsements helped decide the next president? Yes, everyone knows newspaper picks in presidential races don't count for very much, but they do mean something. Surveys by Editor & Publisher (E&P) and others in previous years showed that roughly 5 to 10% of voters (or more) felt that editorials had some influence when they cast their ballots. In a battleground state that's not insignificant. So, without overstating that influence, let's examine what could happen next Tuesday in several key states. First, as we have detailed in our daily endorsement tally, Sen. John Kerry now holds a fairly narrow lead in the number of endorsements, but he has gained many more of the larger papers, holding about a 17 million to 12 million edge by circulation. Most telling, however, is that at least 35 papers that backed Bush in 2000 have now switched to Kerry, and another nine that supported Bush before have declared their neutrality this year. Only five so far have gone from Gore to Bush. This imbalance may be critical. There is a popular misperception that most newspaper endorsements inevitably go Democrat, but E&P surveys in the past have shown that the majority, in fact, back Republicans. This is true more for smaller newspapers, but even big-city metros are usually split. Seventy-two of the largest papers divided right down the middle in 2000. In 2004, the same papers (at least the ones that have announced their picks) favor Kerry by about a 3-2 margin. Now, on to a few swinging states, and some predictions, giving (perhaps) undue weight to editorial endorsements: FLORIDA: Bush is in big trouble here, at least if newspapers have any sway. Every single large paper has gone for Kerry, with the Orlando and Bradenton papers abandoning Bush and The Tampa Tribune (formerly for Dubya) sitting it out. This is how bad it is for the president: As far we know, his two biggest Sunshine State catches so far are the Ocala Star-Banner and The Ledger in Lakeland. So let's give this state to Kerry. In fact, if Bush pulls this one out, E&P promises never to give any weight to editorial endorsements in the future. PENNSYLVANIA: More bad news for Bush. As expected, the two Philly dailies and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette backed Kerry, and The Morning Call in Allentown also switched to him. The Scranton and Harrisburg papers, previously pro-Bush, declared neutrality. Bush did pick up switches in York and Easton, but we have to give this state to Kerry. COLORADO: With Dean Singleton taking over as publisher at The Denver Post, both of that city's papers lined up for Bush. Kerry picked up a switch in Boulder, but it's not enough. This state goes in the Bush column. MICHIGAN: Unlike in previous years, the Detroit papers are not split, with the Free-Press going for Kerry and the News, shockingly, sitting it out. Kerry also picked up switches in Flint and Muskegon. Score this for Kerry. OHIO: Too tough to call. Of the two big Bush papers from 2000, The Plain Dealer is now (officially) neutral and The Columbus Dispatch offered a Bush endorsement that was critical of the president. Elsewhere, Kerry gets Dayton, Toledo, and Akron, while Bush gets Cincinnati and Canton. IOWA: Kerry gets the Des Moines paper and a switch in Davenport. Bush gets Cedar Rapids. Give it to Kerry. MINNESOTA: Kerry grabbed the Minneapolis paper but the Saint Paul Pioneer Press has yet to make a call. OREGON: Did anyone notice that this state went from tossup to leaning left (according to the pundits) right after The Oregonian switched from Bush to Kerry? WASHINGTON: Ditto here, when The Seattle Times jumped to Kerry. The Dem now has both Seattle papers, plus Tacoma's. MAINE: The Portland paper stayed with Kerry and Bangor gave up on Bush. Need we say more? -------------- So who wins on Tuesday? If Kerry's newspaper boost in Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania means anything, he can afford to drop Ohio and still take home the big prize. But that’s a big "if." Stay tuned. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Greg Mitchell (gmitchell@editorandpublisher.com) is editor of E&P and author of seven books on politics and history.

To: Sully- who wrote (62938)	10/27/2004 12:12:29 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Retired Air Force general stumps for Kerry By Chris Bernard cbernard@seacoastonline.com EXETER - The John Kerry campaign continued its push in New Hampshire last week with yet another visit from a high-profile supporter. Exeter traditionally votes moderate Republican. Kerry’s camp sees that as fertile ground for crossover votes for the Democrats, and has pushed for a presence here. The latest soldier in that battle was retired four-star Gen. Tony McPeak, a lifelong Republican who ran the U.S. Air Force during Desert Storm for the first President Bush and endorsed the second in a successful 2000 bid for the Oval Office. McPeak has switched his allegiance. "I’m a recovering Republican and an independent," McPeak said. He called the Exeter News-Letter from a cell phone after leaving an appearance at the Exeter Public Library. "I believe, like John Kerry, that we need a stronger America," McPeak said. "We are weaker now than at any time, certainly during the last four years. "That’s a direct result of the incompetence and stupidity of President Bush," he said. McPeak said the Bush administration’s domestic policy is weak as well, but his focus was international affairs. "Our standing in the world is as low as I can remember," he said. "We’re losing friends as fast as we’re making enemies." The Bush campaign has painted Kerry as a weak would-be-commander in chief, implying that the United States would face direct terrorist attacks under his watch. McPeak disputed those claims. "I resent them saying that about a man who served his country first in combat in Vietnam, and then served it again in the antiwar movement," he said. "Like John Kerry, I was serving my country while they were hiding from it, seeking deferments. "If you take baloney and wrap it in a flag, you’ve still got baloney but now you’ve insulted the flag," McPeak said. "That’s not patriotism. Are these men going to question my patriotism?" In addition to McPeak, New Hampshire has had visits from Kerry celebrity surrogates Michael J. Fox, Paul Newman, Carole King and Sharon Stone, among others. Stone was part of a bus full of congresswomen and actresses stumping for Kerry last week. The tour bypassed Exeter, though the campaign lobbied hard for a visit to the News-Letter. The tour was a no-show when it found itself overbooked, but made appearances in Manchester and Durham. McPeak said he has traveled to nearly every one of the so-called battleground states for John Kerry. During his Exeter appearance he was joined by Vietnam veteran Joey Duboise and former Navy flight engineer Tony Woody, both of Exeter, Lt. Colonel Sam Poulten of Lawrence, Mass., and Sgt. Doug Madory of Hanover. "Look, I don’t see John Kerry as walking on water," McPeak said. "But there are only two men who can be president after November. "The one we have now, his track record is deplorable. Kerry is much more intelligent." He called Bush’s campaigning "a scuzzbag approach to politics." "Strong words? Absolutely, but I’m serious about this," McPeak said. "The way they’re going after John Kerry despite his military record is slimy and it stinks, and as a result of it so do they." seacoastonline.com