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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54965)	10/27/2004 1:56:51 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, um, isn't it a teensy bit awkward to be taunting Mq about QCOM's decline right now? So soon after you boldly shorted four home-builders a few days ago... Message 20665298 ... just before the group reversed and rocketed back upward... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb20!d10,1!f][vc60][iut!Lc20!Lg]&pref=G Hope you had a tight stop! Don't forget, I warned you about the bulls... story.news.yahoo.com -Snow

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54965)	10/27/2004 5:55:43 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Jay, we gravitational financial physicists are ahead of the game. As the shrinkage continues, the royalty and ASIC price increase proportionately. The royalty is a percentage of the wholesale price. So, when it takes a wheelbarrow full of US$100 notes to buy one CDMA cyberphone, QCOM collects 5% of that wheelbarrow full. So you see, the income remains the same in terms of purchasing power. If it was $1 a unit royalty, that would be a very different and disastrous story for me. I'm sure you know the difference between 1% and $1. The collection of royalty might be a problem if the delivery was physical paper, but it's actually a $10011101001101 type payment in cyberspace, so it doesn't matter where the 0s and 1s are placed. The value in purchasing power of things I want is what matters. $1 billion or $1000 is all the same in 0s and 1s from a collection point of view. It's what can be bought with those 0s and 1s which matters. As the measuring stick shrinks, it'll take more 1s and 0s to pay the royalty and buy the ASIC and it'll similarly take more of those 1s and 0s to buy a Lexus and a tank of ethanol. I won't need to buy a fleet of trucks to collect tons of banknotes, which I admit would be quite a problem. I'll just click in cyberspace and move some 0s and 1s from one account to another, just as the royalty payers and ASIC buyers will do and just as QCOM will do. What matters is how many people are wanting to buy said devices. There are billions of them Jay. What also matters is what the competition is doing in competing away margins and eliminating wholesale price. They aren't doing much. They are adding features and charging more. So royalties are not shrinking and ASICs aren't getting cheaper at the leading edge. That's how it has been in the computer industry for 30 years. Computer power kept going up and prices didn't keep going down. Similarly, people are willing to pay for better cyberphone power and features rather than just buy a cheaper phone that does the same old stuff. Make your NEM/QCOM graph longer. Perhaps back to 1996 and see what it looks like. As you have rightly pointed out, the more important question than where we are today, is where we will be after time travel. At some stage, QCOM will = 0. Gold will = long run value [unless some smart aleck converts mercury to gold, or filters gold from the ocean at low cost, or some equal trickery]. Will QCOM returns to shareholders exceed the current $40 price [time adjusted] and with a winning profit margin thrown? $60 billion is a lot of money to be repaid by 5 billion people. That's $15 per human and adjusting for them not paying it for a decade or more, that's more like $30 per human, or more. That's real money, especially when competitors will be seeking a piece of the action. A big piece. And governments might carve out a chunk. Or other things might go wrong [such as investing in really silly things]. We'll see. BREW is looking good too. There's Globalstar. Eudora. Other stuff. Mqurice