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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (81318)	10/28/2004 4:09:56 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793801

In an election such as 1996, when the presidential election was not close, deviations from the ultimate partisan breakdown of the electorate is not problematic. However, when the difference between the candidates on 11-02 could be as little as 2%, improper partisan identification weights can result in an inaccurate prediction So he's saying that polls like ABC/WaPo are reporting a Bush +2 result when the actual election is likely to be Bush +4 or more, because of enhanced GOP GOTV efforts. Of course, the GOP GOTV could not ask for a better poll result than that; slightly ahead (encouraging) but really, really close (so your vote matters!) is exactly what they need. It would be ironic if the major polls, either through caution or a pro-Dem bias, wind up being a big factor in aiding a GOP surprise at the polls next week.