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Politics : Proof that John Kerry is Unfit for Command -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (22749)	10/28/2004 2:03:33 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27181

So, cell phone users are now going to be part of the 20 million "NEW" voters that you expect to vote for John Kerry as wartime commander in chief of a military that thoroughly despises him? LOL! Or maybe you're just laying the groundwork for massive cheating. As the former majority party of this country for several decades, the Democrats have developed quite a significant capability for generating a few extra points from the living and the dead. The Undecideds Break For The Challenger Myth I heard Pat Caddell on television debunking the conventional wisdom that the undecideds always break for the challenger. After hearing Caddell’s argument and reading the following email I received from a reader, I am convinced that it is, in fact, a myth: I did some research on the difference between the average of all the final polls (available here and the final election result in search of this fabled “incumbent rule.” I couldn’t find it. In the five incumbent elections since 1976, only 2 have broken decisively for the challenger – 1980 and 1996. In 1984 and 1992, the incumbent gained slightly from the final poll. In 1976, there was a slight break in favor of Carter that was not statistically significant. Something that’s true only 2 out of 5 times is hardly a “rule.” For 1980, you can link to Carter pollster Pat Caddell’s account for a debunking of the notion of the “incumbent rule.” (here:). For 1996, draw your own conclusions; my personal suspicion is that the polls were inflated all along (a la some of the September polls) plus Clinton had sustained some of the first chinks in his armor over the Asian donor scandal heading into the election. The bottom line is that without serious momentum (and especially in an environment where only 3 percent are undecided) it will be very difficult for Kerry to overcome the deficit he now faces. The bottom line: Blumenthal the Mystery Pollster and the desperate lefty bloggers are wrong. They selectively pick their data (for instance only analyzing Gallup or “major network” polls) instead of averaging all the polls like RCP does. Their claim that the President usually closes below his closing poll percentage is also wrong, as the numbers below show. They misstate the President’s actual level of support, which is not at 46-47, but 48-49 (good enough to win if the election were today). And they wrongly conflate undecided late-breaking behavior in Presidential races (where both candidates are relatively well known) with local races (where the challenger is usually unknown). Here is the raw data. 2000: Final Polls: Bush 47.3%, Gore 45.7%, Nader 4.3% Result: Bush 47.9%, Gore 48.4%, Nader 2.7% Difference: Bush +0.6%, Gore +2.7%, Nader -1.6% Swing from Final Poll: 2.1% to Gore (open-seat incumbent) 1996: Final Polls: Clinton 50.3%, Dole 38.2%, Perot 8.6% Result: Clinton 49.3%, Dole 40.7%, Perot 8.4% Difference: Clinton -1.0%, Dole +2.5%, Perot -0.2% Swing from Final Poll: 3.5% to Dole (challenger) 1992: Final Polls: Clinton 44.8%, Bush 36.7%, Perot 15.5% Result: Clinton 43.0%, Bush 37.5%, Perot 18.9% Difference: Clinton -1.8%, Bush +0.8%, Perot +3.4% Swing from Final Poll: 2.6% to Bush (incumbent), with 3.4% surge for Perot 1988: Final Polls: Bush 52.8%, Dukakis 43.8% Result: Bush 53.3%, Dukakis 45.7% Difference: Bush +0.5%, Dukakis +1.9% Swing from Final Poll: 1.4% to Dukakis (open-seat challenger) 1984: Final Polls: Reagan 57.0%, Mondale 39.3% Result: Reagan 58.7%, Mondale 40.6% Difference: Reagan +1.7%, Mondale +1.3% Swing from Final Poll: 0.4% to Reagan (incumbent) 1980: Final Polls: Reagan 44.8%, Carter 41.0%, Anderson 8.8% Result: Reagan 50.8%, Carter 41.0%, Anderson 6.6% Difference: Reagan +6.0%, Carter +0.0%, Anderson -2.2% Swing from Final Poll: 6.0% to Reagan (challenger) 1976: Final Polls: Carter 47.0%, Ford 45.7% Result: Carter 50.1%, Ford 48.0% Difference: Carter +3.1%, Ford +2.3% Swing from Final Poll: 0.8% to Carter (challenger) polipundit.com