The Leaning Poll of State Bias
There has been a lot of talk about the direction and meaning of the polls in the close races, and I have decided to show an easy way to spot leanings. I took a look again at four states where the Presidential race is deemed close, and I have examined how the major polls spoke for public opinion. I say “major polls", because when a poll shows up in only one state, like the Badger Poll in Wisconsin or the Ohio Poll, you can’t tell if they reflect the mood or have a lean in their practices; the multi-state polls tend to show a pattern, I found. I examined the major polls (thank you, RCP!) in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and broke each poll down to the last 2 weeks, the last month, and for the campaign term. I noted only those polls which showed someone in the lead.
Survey USA has worked hard to show a lot of details and make the case for their objectivity, but for two of these states, they show a clear dislike for the President. SUSA does not show up for Wisconsin or Minnesota, but in Ohio, their last three polls all show Kerry in the lead, only one poll this year shows Bush leading in Ohio. In Florida, their last 2 polls show Bush trailing, with 3 of 6 this year showing Bush behind Kerry in Florida. In those 2 states, then, SUSA’s last five polls all show Bush behind, and for the year, only one SUSA poll in either state all year ever showed Bush ahead.
American Research Group is also no friend of the President. In Ohio, the last two polls show Bush behind, and six out of seven all year in Ohio give Kerry the lead over Bush in Ohio. In Florida, again the last 2 polls show Kerry leading, and for the whole year, Bush leads in only 2 of 9 ARG polls there. In Wisconsin, ARG has no poll with a leader for the past month; for the year, the only 2 polls ARG released with a leader in Wisconsin went for Kerry. In Minnesota, the only poll all year which showed a leader for ARG went for Kerry. For the four states, their last 4 polls all went for Kerry when they showed a lead, and for the year in these four states, Bush led in 3 polls while Kerry led in the other 16.
Looking on the other side, Strategic Vision has been a cheerleader for Bush, complete with pom-poms. In Ohio, in all 8 polls this year SV shows Bush ahead. In Florida, their last 4 showed Bush ahead, and 6 out of 8 for the year. In Wisconsin, SV’s last 3 polls show the President leading, and 6 out of 7 for the year. The only SV downer for Bush is Minnesota, where only 1 of their last 3 shows Bush ahead, and only 1 out of 7 for the year. For the 4 states, Bush leads in 10 of 12 recent polls (since Sept. 28), and for the year, Bush leads in 21 of 30 polls.
Zogby is a particularly partisan agency, but I did see a small surprise in Ohio. In Ohio, the only poll with a leader in the last month went for Kerry, but for the year, 5 out of 8 leads in Ohio went to Bush. In Florida, the only Zogby poll with a leader in the last month went for Bush, but only 3 out of 9 this year. In Wisconsin, the only Zogby poll in the last month with a leader went for Kerry, and all 9 polls there this year went for Kerry. The same case happened in Minnesota, where the only Zogby poll with a leader in the last month went for Kerry, and all 9 this year. Overall, then, in the last month, 3 of the 4 Zogby polls showing a leader went for Kerry, and 27 out of 35 Zogby polls in these states showed Bush behind.
Rasmussen was interesting. In Ohio, the 3 polls since Sept. 28 show Bush ahead, and 6 out of 9 for the year. In Florida, the last 2 polls show Bush ahead, but for the year, 4 out of 7 polls had Kerry ahead. In Wisconsin, the only poll from the past month shows Kerry ahead; for the year, 2 of the 4 polls favor Bush, and the other 2 favor Kerry. In Minnesota, the last 2 polls are split, but for the year, 6 out of 7 show Kerry ahead. Overall, then, in the last month Bush leads in 6 out of 7 polls, but for the year Kerry leads in 15 out of 27 polls.
These examples show a clear indication, not that the poll has a candidate they want to support necessarily, but that their methods of polling favor one party more than another. When looking at the new polls in this final week, therefore, be sure to look back a little bit and see what they’ve been saying all along the way.
-- DJ Drummond
polipundit.com |
