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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (63659)	10/28/2004 7:36:37 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

And that's even without: 1) Allocating undecided votes at 75-80% Kerry, the historical average for challengers... worth maybe 2-3 points to Kerry; 2) Considering the near-certainty that this year's turnout will be far larger than the recent-election averages used by all the polls... worth maybe 3 points to Kerry; 3) Correcting for the known under-sampling of minorities (many people per telephone) and young (ditto plus cell-phone lifestyle) in telephone surveys... worth maybe 3-5 points to Kerry. If all those come together, there could yet be a Kerry landslide on Tuesday. At the least, I am projecting a clear win for him. <<Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 260 Bush 254>>