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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (55062)	10/28/2004 11:51:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<I sold my entire paper certificate gold hoard in exchange for HKD, which is an USD proxy. (d) I exchange several tranches of Japanese Yen for HKD. (e) I unloaded mind-bendingly large tranches of AUD and CAD for the ever worth-less USD.> Huh? Jay, if I understand those financial shenanigans correctly, it means you have done what I have thought would be a good idea for a while = sell gold, ditch oil, abandon NZ$, buy US$. Mind-bendingly large tranches of our positions are now in the same place. I'm disappointed that I missed my move from US$ to NZ$ and then back again after a move from US40c to currently US70c which is a 75% depreciation of US$ vs the Mighty Kiwi$. You have ditched paper-proven ownership of lumps of actual gold in exchange for immaterial ever worth-less US$. Oil is losing market share as you read this and prices have dropped. NEM has placed a large bet on oil never going below US$30 a barrel, which is a dopey bet in my book. Even at $30 a barrel, there's plenty of pressure to do something other than burn oil. It still seems amazingly stupid to spend a fortune [$250 an ounce or something like it] to dig up gold, only to bury it again in a bank vault, Fort Knox or the garden. Wearing it around a neck or wrist is ornamental [for some people], so there's some fun there at least. It seems far more sensible to spend the effort and resources, which go into digging gold, on building out lots of lovely CDMA cyberspace towers and making lots of amazing phragmented photon cyberphone gadgets, so people can do actually useful things, such as swish around in cyberspace while their Lexus SUV is parked in traffic and their children need something to do. I hasten to add that that is not a recommendation to buy QCOM, which seems to me to be at a more than high-enough price for now, while the US$ interest rates are in an upward spiral and debt-laden US companies and individuals are in a downward spiral, which will carry the likes of MSFT and QCOM, which own mountains of cash, with them, at least temporarily. Looking at grand scale Nasdaq graphs, there appears to be a dead-cat bounce following the Biotelecosmictechdot.com climax and bust of Y2K. I suspect it would be judicious to see just where those interest rates go, what the effect on the stock market will be and how mortgage-bound mortgagors will handle said interest rate rises. Even with measuring stick shrinkage, some things can shrink faster than that for a while. I suspect you are in phase with The Force. You even seem to be in phase with me. Which should unsettle you a little. Though you can consider yourself just passing through, en route to somewhere else. I did miss a large phase change in the US$ move heavily down versus the NZ$. But opportunities come past every day. There'll be another one tomorrow. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (55062)	10/29/2004 1:48:07 AM
From: Canuck Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

November 12th is a Friday, Jay. Can disasters happen on a Friday? So what do you think it means for gold? In or out? I got gold stocks, Canadian cash, and old fashioned ducats. Wonder which ones will do best. CD