Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 7:46:30 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116555

My experience has been that the majority is always wrong at MAJOR TURNING POINTS. But oil prices had run up so much that we were overdue for a SHARP correction even if the final highs are not yet in. And the odds of such a correction were greatly increased when the powers that be again hiked margin requirements on oil futures trading.

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 8:49:10 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK lending growth slows dramatically in Sept - BoE UPDATE Friday, October 29, 2004 9:41:08 AM afxpress.com (adds analyst comment) LONDON (AFX) - There was widespread evidence this morning that the consumer sector is slowing down dramatically in the wake of higher borrowing costs Official figures from the Bank of England showed marked slowdowns in the growth of lending across the board, especially for housebuying The central bank said total net lending during the month increased by 9.4 bln stg, down on the 10.2 bln recorded in August and expectations of a 10.1 bln rise The September increase was the lowest since April 2003, when sentiment was presumably affected by the war in Iraq The most dramatic decline came with net mortgage lending, which only increased by 7.7 bln stg from the previous month, down on August's 8.4 bln and expectations of an 8.5 bln rise Again, the September rise was the lowest since April 2003 The central bank also said the number of mortgage approvals slipped to their lowest rate since August 2000, falling to 89,000 in September from August's 95,000. Meanwhile, net consumer credit increased by 1.6 bln stg in September from the previous month, down on the 1.9 bln recorded in August, but in line with expectations The September rise in consumer credit was the lowest since May this year Today's figures are likely to cement expectations that the central bank will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.75 pct for the remainder of the year The rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee has raised the cost of borrowing a quarter point on five occasions since last November as it sought to stem inflationary pressures arising from above-trend growth and rampant consumer demand But a raft of weak data, particularly in the housing market, has raised expectations that the next interest rate move may actually be down. Yesterday's monthly house price survey from the Nationwide, the UK's largest building society, recorded the first price decline in four years "Overall, demand in the housing market continues to cool and perhaps by slightly more than had been expected," said Ross Walker, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. "The interesting question is whether the recent fall in fixed-rate mortgage rates will restrain this trend," he added

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 9:11:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Here is an interesting argument presented by RIEN on my board on the FOOL. I know you disagree but here goes. From Rien: =================================================== It's simple really: If commodity prices go up AFTER wages have gone up, then it is (most likely) inflation at work. If commodity prices go up BEFORE wages go up, then they are deflationary. (And any wage increases that come after that are most likely the result from the fed/gov trying to keep the economy going despite the deflationary pressures) The new jobs in Asia (China) give the people higher income over there. This results in increased demand. This increased demand causes higher commodity prices. In Asia, the wages lead the commodity rices, and are the results of inflation over there. However since the renminby is pegged to the USD and since jobs are leaving the US, there is no wage increase in the US. Hence for the US these higher prices are deflationary in nature. The only reason we do not see more of a deflationary spiral in the US is that 1) People work longer hours (per household), 2) People keep on taking on more debt and 3) People take some money out of the asset bubbles. Best, Rien.

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 9:12:06 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

U.S. Q3 GDP increases 3.7% vs. 4.3% expected By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) – The U.S. economy grew at a less-than-expected 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter after growing 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were expecting gross domestic product to grow 4.3 percent. Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate while business investment grew at a 11.7 percent rate. The core inflation rate increased 0.7 percent annualized, the lowest in 42 years. Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent, and the personal savings rate fell to 0.4 percent, its lowest level since the Depression. Let Greenspan mull on that Mish

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 9:16:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

GDP growth weaker than expected Third-quarter increase of 3.7% lower than forecast, above prior quarter. October 29, 2004: 8:48 AM EDT NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the third quarter, the government reported Friday. Growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest and perhaps best indicator of the nation's economic health, was significantly weaker than expected but still ahead of the 3.3 percent growth rate last quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected growth of 4.3 percent. The Commerce Department report was the last broad reading on economic growth before the Nov. 2 elections. Growth was helped by strong consumer spending and low inflation. Consumer spending, which makes up some two-thirds of the nations' economic activity, grew more briskly than it has in a year. The so-called chain deflator, a measure of inflation, shrank from 3.2% to 1.3%, even lower than the 1.6% economists had expected.

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 9:20:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bristol-Myers Squibb Q3 earns fall, revs rise Friday, October 29, 2004 12:27:22 PM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) -- Pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb said third-quarter profit fell to $758 million, or 38 cents per share, from $906 million, or 47 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. Analysts polled by Thompson First Call had predicted earnings of 39 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter rose to $5.43 billion from $5.37 billion. The company reiterated its previous full-year 2004 guidance for fully diluted earnings per share of $1.60 per share to $1.65 per share on an adjusted non-GAAP basis

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 10:05:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Consumer spending increased at a 4.6 percent rate .... Real disposable personal incomes increased 1.4 percent The former I believe, the latter I do not. Savings lowest since great depression I easily agree with. Add it all up and what do you have? More money coming out of houses to support consumption. Mish

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 10:08:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

GDP Growth vs Spending U.S. GDP disappointing, economist Brusca says Friday, October 29, 2004 1:28:08 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Although gross domestic product grew at an above-trend 3.7 percent in the third quarter, the U.S. economy was "a bit off its game," said Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics. "Any GDP growth rate that does not create jobs in the amount averaging 150,000 per month is a growth rate that is not high enough. Period," he said. "This is the fourth quarter IN A ROW in which GDP has grown faster than disposable personal income, not a trend that can be sustained." Mish

To: zonder who wrote (14279)	10/29/2004 10:10:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The Optimist Viewpoint U.S. economy strong in Q3, Greenwich Capital says Friday, October 29, 2004 1:23:34 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- U.S. economic growth of 3.7 percent may have been below estimates of 4.3 percent, but "it is by no means soft," said Steve Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital. "Consumption was extremely strong, just a little less than we had forecast, and investment boomed," he said. "Given the focus on oil prices, markets will no doubt be looking for further deceleration, but we think growth could exceed 4 percent" in the fourth quarter