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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (81648)	10/29/2004 8:18:47 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793640

Minnesota Update - HORSERACE BLOG The Republicans seem to have retained a registration advantage in Minnesota, despite Democratic surges in the last month. Essentially, what has happened is that blue counties are now outpacing red counties in terms of voter registration, but Bush did sufficiently well in the gaining blue counties in 2000 that he remains the overall beneficiary. At this point, I would estimate that Bush has netted anywhere between 5,000 and 8,000 votes on Kerry in terms of registration. The reason for this variation is that Hennepin County has gained about 30,000 registrants in the last two months. Hennepin County is an evenly divided county (between the Democratic Minneapolis and the slightly Republican suburbs) and it has lost some 84,102 voters since the 2000 election. Given the available data, it is impossible to estimate where most of the losses have occurred in Hennepin (as of September 14, most of the losses were from the Republican suburbs -- thus, it is quite possible that the gains that Hennepin has seen in the three weeks since my last report are in the Republican suburbs, where registration levels might be returning to normal). The registration data, however, hides a problem for the Kerry campaign. Kerry, by most reports, seems to be underperforming among rural voters -- and this will surely hurt him in many MN counties. Gore carried a number of rural counties in 2000 -- Cook, Pine, Aitkin, Swift, Big Stone, Lac Qui Parle, Lincoln, Fillmore, and Winona -- that I very much doubt Kerry will hold this time around. Also, look for Bush to increase his margins all throughout the rural congressional districts of MN 08, MN 7 and especially MN 01. Overall, these three congressional districts had neaarly a million citizens vote in 2000. If Bush can improve his margin in those areas by just 3.0% (i.e. net 6.0%), that could land him 54,000 net votes -- I believe this is a very do-able goal (particularly in MN 08, where Bush under-performed in 2000). These gains plus his current registration advantage would nullify the 59,607 margin of victory Gore had in 2000. What might be decisive in the rural areas is the issue of snow mobile use in the federal Superior National Forest preserve. National Review had an interesting piece this week indicating that this issue might help Bush's margins in MN 08. Ultimately, the battle would then come down to the Minneapolis/St. Paul region. Bush needs to increase his turnout in Hennepin, Anoka, Dakota, Rice and Washington Counties -- all of these are suburban areas where Bush could stand to do better than in 2000. And he needs to remain at the same level in Minneapolis and St. Paul. This is the strategy that both Governor Pawlenty and Senator Coleman used to great success. All of this is definitely plausible this time around. The one variable remains the Nader factor. Ralph is, I believe, on the ballot in 2004. However, he surely will not get the 5% of the vote he received in 2000. The actions of the 2000 Nader voters -- do they go to Kerry or do they remain with Nader or do they go to the Green Party or do they not go anywhere -- could determine this election. Minnesota is one of the three genuine toss-up states of 2004. I believe the evidence on the ground indicates that FL, IA, WI and NM will go to Bush. Kerry seems likely to carry PA. That leaves MN, MI and NH as the three states that are simply too close to call. This could change in the next few days -- the polls out recently show a Bush surge in MN, but these are not to be taken too seriously. Nevertheless, if they continue to show a Bush surge, this strategy will become more and more tenable. Expect Minnesota to be called very late in the evening. Bush's largest gains will come from the rural counties in the west and the north. These results will probably be very late in arriving. An early indication of Bush's strategy will be how the returns look from the Minneapolis/St. Paul region. If Bush improves his 2000 standing in the suburbs, and holds steady in the urban areas, then we can expect Bush to carry the state.