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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (55103)	10/29/2004 3:17:26 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

PB, welcome to the club. <The trouble is the actual risk is not being understood. I know this very well. I (excuse my feelings of superiority here) am able to fix a whole load of problems in industry and business yet no one will hire me in my correct role as a "trouble shooter fixer". I am in a business that has a whole load of problems, and that is OK with me because I think I can fix those problems. What bothers me is few know what I am talking about. Is it my communication problem, or do I need to take control of the situation somehow? > In my areas of expertise, and with other things I take the trouble to understand, I find that people adopt the NIH syndrome. It's all about their ego and their brain's model of the world. If what you say doesn't fit their idea of "how things are", you can talk until you are blue in the face and they'll still tell you that their religions is the one true truth, because it says so, right here in the bible/koran, which somebody wrote sometime. They KNOW that Santa is true and will bring presents. The tooth fairy will save them. Their most powerful attachment and belief is their group identity in which they were raised. They'll go down with the ship before they'll change ideology. If they didn't invent the idea, it's automatically no good and they can think of 42 reasons why it's no good. Even if you have spent a very long time figuring it all out and have covered every angle, including those they raise, it's still no good and within 3 seconds of hearing half the idea, they know it's no good. Heck, they don't even need half the idea. Usually, just hearing that something is coming is sufficient to enable them to dismiss it as a no-go. Some things are, of course, conjecture and we all have to adopt positions on relative flimsy grounds. For example, my current holdings of US$, which is the best of a bad bunch of choices as far as I can tell with my limited understanding. We listen to others to try to find any faults or truths which we haven't allowed for. I think the problem is that we all have very limited brain capacity and processing power. So we are constantly 'full up'. Any more load and we have to shed something else. Plus we have egos to defend and the desire to be further up the pecking order, even if at times there's some faking it going on. We are made for limited understanding and blunders, ignorance and failure, arrogance and pratfalls. BP Oil used to pay me a lot of money to tell them what to do. Then they'd ignore what I told them. Until the competition did it, then they'd decide, too late, that it was a good idea. I'd warn of problems, which they'd ignore, then wonder how to fix the mess and recover their loss of reputation. Texaco and Castrol did the same. I became quite used to the process. Similarly in many spheres. Globalstar ignored my suggestions, in person, face to face, several times, to sell the service properly. They continue to do so. They had a multibillion dollar financial disaster as a result. They were the hot-shots, not me. They didn't need no stinking advice from some jerk who wasn't as important as them. Jay no doubt feels the same with me and the coming great financial collapse, financial reset, panic and pandemonium. I've scrupulously read all the stuff from him and lots more. I can see the principles. I understand them. He has cast his pearls before a swine, who is pig-headedly ignoring him. I disagree that the process is inevitable as he describes, though I agree there's a serious risk. I'm positioned to survive such an event. And, if it doesn't happen, I'm positioned to gain from the world's success that I expect. Unless H5N1 reduces the world's population by 2 billion as that bloke the other day said might happen even in the next year or so. All I can suggest is improved communication and selling of your ideas. Perseverance pays. Gradually, the ideas can get through, with multidirectional approaches. BP Oil has now adopted the ideas I'd been promoting, and even at the time, grudgingly and gradually was moving in the right direction. It's like getting the Titanic to change direction. It's big, it's pig-headed, it's travelling fast, and doesn't change direction easily. Have your personal life-boat ready if you can't effect change. Abandon ship if necessary. Choose a better ship in the first place. My sympathies, Mqurice