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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Math Junkie who wrote (21796)10/29/2004 9:57:34 PM
From: geode00  Respond to of 42834
 
Good points. I believe that what we are seeing here is uncannily similar (egads) to what happens with Bob. Propaganda, for whatever purpose, works. When it goes unchallenged (talk radio, cable news, major media, whatever) and is repeated over and over again it becomes as good as or even better than the truth. At that point, people will defend their position at all costs in order to not admit that they have been wrong.

What I don't understand is how, given the complexity of the situation, a country of this size can be so evenly divided between the two major parties.

If the limited history of such situations is any indication, it should break for the challenger on election day. The average challenger's bump is 4% off of the 'floor' given in the last polls before the election. The incumbent's numbers in the last poll are his 'ceiling.'

This is, after all, much more of a referendum on the incumbent than on the challenger. Zogby says Kerry will win although his rolling poll shows a dead heat.