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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (14335)	10/30/2004 11:28:21 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

OK, I agree that this slowdown looms large. My big question is: how the hell do we invest in this environment? I can't help but think that probably the best strategy is to merely maintain purchasing power, but I'm willing to take some risk to try and get some return on my investments over the next few years. Right now, having a moderate, broad-based short position is a death-wish. I tried putting it back on when the upward momentum of the past couple years died. However, I've had to take my lumps and now regroup. The Northern Trust report puts it pretty well by saying that the consumer slowdown is coming, adjust your portfolio accordingly. Can we have some discussion of what exactly that means? Further dollar weakness is likely, so buy foreign government bonds and gold? Does it mean a broad-based short position? Selected retail shorts? Real estate shorts? You can bet the official response will be attempts to further lower interest rates and encourage increased home equity extraction. Don't fight the Fed when it comes to housing bubble? I'm so serious about this. I think we spend far too much time trying to gauge the collapse; when, where, and how large it will be. But we don't spend enough time discussing the optimum strategies to maintain. What are the thoughts of the thread? BC