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Politics : John Kerry for President? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jagfan who wrote (3245)	10/30/2004 7:39:19 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 3515

The makings of an early evening call for George W. Bush (Joe Scarborough) Pensacola, FL— If you want to know where the campaign stands, just see where the candidates sit today. George W. Bush is spending the homestretch in states carried by Al Gore in 2000. This morning, he hammered his war on terror theme to rapturous crowds in Wisconsin and Michigan. Later this afternoon he will be visiting what has long been considered one of the most liberal states in America: Minnesota. Interestingly enough, John Kerry also finds himself today stuck on the defensive in states carried by Gore, like Wisconsin and Iowa. By the way, I couldn't help notice how the crowds in Iowa were almost tepid in their response to Kerry's negative message while the President was greeted like a rock star in Wisconsin and Michigan. As I learned when we Congressional Republicans tried to take on Bill Clinton in the '90s, there's just something about that presidential bully pulpit. Bush insiders are beginning to believe that internal polls they are viewing point to one unmistakable conclusion: four more years for their man. Bushies are cheered by the fact that with 48 hours left in what was to be a barnburner campaign, the Kerry camp is still sweating out the details in New Jersey and Hawaii— two states that Al Gore won by almost 20 points just four years ago. Terror is the defining feature in both states, with Hawaiians looking westward where Al Qaeda continues to spread its politics of death, and New Jersey residents remembering the burning New York skyline just to their east across the Hudson River in 2001. Add to those poll numbers the latest Bin Laden bombshell and you have all the makings of an early evening call for George W. Bush. You won't hear that on most networks or read about it in the New York Times tomorrow morning because the overwhelming number of reporters passing the news your direction are hoping against hope that enough "Kerry Haters for Kerry" will vote for their candidate before forgetting to vote against him. Expect the Times and network newstypes to comfort themselves with remarkable tales of early voting projections and Democratic GOTV measures on Tuesday. But there is a big difference this year between how the Democrats and Republicans are planning to pull their most loyal supporters to the voting booths. Democratic operatives are relying on the same 527 organizations who were responsible for the Howard Dean voter drives in the early primary contests this year. The Bush team have remained maniacally focused on getting Bushies into voting booths early and often, with Karl Rove, Ed Gillespie, and Ken Melmen personally sweating out the details in house. Even though I was the first political commentator to call this race for Bush following the third presidential debate, I do not kid myself. A Kerry victory in Florida, though unlikely, is very possible. If Florida is colored blue for Kerry early in the evening, W should start packing his bags for Crawford. But I suspect we will instead be surprised by the President's success in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, or Wisconsin. One victory in these states coupled with an expected Bush victory in Iowa makes Kerry the odd man out in the Boston winners' circle that for now looks like it will be inhabited only by players for the Red Sox and Patriots. That's all for now from flyover space. By the way, the latest Newsweek and Battleground polls released today have Bush leading Kerry by 5 points. Expect the USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll to produce a similar result sometime Sunday night while CBS/NY Times will continue limiting their polling audience to family members of Dan Rather, Mary Mapes, and Paul Krugman. msnbc.msn.com

To: Jagfan who wrote (3245)	10/30/2004 11:05:28 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 3515

Newspaper Poll: Bush Is Ahead, Kerry Getting Closer President Has 3 Point Lead UPDATED: 9:13 PM EDT October 30, 2004 CLEVELAND -- President George W. Bush had a slight lead over U.S. Sen. John Kerry in a newspaper's poll of Ohio voters. The poll commissioned by The Plain Dealer for its edition Saturday showed that voters surveyed favored Bush over his Democratic challenger, 48 percent to 45 percent. A Plain Dealer poll of the same size conducted in mid-September had the Republican incumbent with 50 percent to 42 percent for Kerry. Five percent of voters in the recent poll considered themselves undecided, down from 6 percent in September. The survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted Oct. 26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. It has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.