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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: redfish who wrote (64302)	10/30/2004 10:34:49 AM
From: jim-thompson	Respond to of 89467

If John Kerry cannot make a commitment to his own church how can he make a commitment to lead the country. John Kerry has always been weak on honor and leadership. Just like when he left his men in Viet-Nam suddenly after only 4 months in-country on a 12 month combat tour.

To: redfish who wrote (64302)	10/31/2004 3:45:03 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

A Very Comprehensive Electoral College Analysis dailykos.com Total Projection: Kerry 311, Bush 227 ****************** *Complete state-by-state analysis at the link above but here is the conclusion: <<...Basically, I see a very slight Kerry victory in the popular vote (between 1-2 points) coupled with a solid EC victory. I think that the numbers are favorable for Kerry in the nine critical states, and that the Repubs will simply not have an answer for the newly registered Dem voters and the ACT/Moveon/Kerry ground game. The importance of WI and NH, incidentally, cannot be overstated. I'm fairly certain that OH is going Kerry--and I think that all the facts (the fraud aside) suggest a Kerry win in FL. But I wouldn't want to bet everything on FL, nor on IA or NM. If all those go to Bush, while Kerry takes OH, then it's all about WI and NH--winning them both would earn him a 272-266 victory. All in all, I feel very good about where things are, and Bin Laden tonight didn't change that...>>

To: redfish who wrote (64302)	10/31/2004 4:12:11 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

A poll shows desire for change on the increase. palmbeachpost.com

To: redfish who wrote (64302)	10/31/2004 10:07:14 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Kerry Will Win Big ____________________________________ by DHinMI Sun Oct 31st, 2004 at 23:09:22 GMT dailykos.com Here's something you seldom see in the SCLM: I will highlight to all what was probably the most boneheaded analysis I've ever made on Daily Kos. Jeeze, saying the Iowa Caucuses would have little or no effect on the results of the New Hampshire primary has to be one of the dumbest things I've ever written. Why do I highlight an obscure comment buried within a long-forgotten thread posted ten months ago? Because I want to remember that case of forced humility as I go out on a bit of a limb and make a prediction: Kerry is going to win big. It's still possible that Bush could pull it off, and it's even more possible that Bush could again win the Presidency through litigation. But the odds are getting more lopsided in favor of at least a solid Kerry win, with improving odds of a Kerry landslide. I've been open to the possibility of a Kerry landslide since April. Nothing since then has dissuaded me of that possibility. The race, as far as we can tell, has the appearance of being close, but with indications of great early voting numbers coming out of places like Iowa and inspiring stories about people determined to have their votes counted in Florida, the early, admittedly highly anecdotal evidence points to good things. Add the news from Ohio, the tightening polls in places like Arkansas and Nevada, the fact that Kerry is polling better than Gore did on the verge of the election, and that the Dems stand to gain much more from the intensified GOTV efforts, relatively, than should the Republicans, and there is much to suggest that Kerry should do extremely well on Tuesday. So, I decided to do something I almost never do: make a prediction. Kerry will win big--big as in over 5% (which is big in terms of the last several Presidential races), and big as in 311 or more electoral votes. This isn't over, and as I clearly stated in April, my confidence in our chances is by no means an excuse for anybody to let up for even 5 seconds. Follow through on the GOTV work, continue to talk to your friends and neighbors, and do whatever we need to do to elect Dems up and down the ballot. But do it with confidence, because we're on the verge of a momentous and deeply satisfying victory.