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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64486)	10/30/2004 6:10:10 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

The Editor of Vanity Fair Makes His Prediction... ____________________________________________ Kerry 55, Bush 45 Posted by James Wolcott jameswolcott.com That's my election prediction. Weigh it for what it's worth: nothing. How did I arrive at that figure, as I rode the Metroliner back from DC this morning? (I was on C-SPAN last night, an hour and a half of pure enlightment that will be rebroadcast again this weekend--I'll post the details when i have them.) Oh, I could pull out electoral wonk explanations, such as how a big turnout (which this election will be) benefits Democrats, how Bush remains sunken below the 50 percent level in nearly all of the battleground state polls (a dire state for an incumbent to be in), how young people are showing a motivation to vote not seen since 1992 (when they helped put Clinton over), how Bush has managed to erode so many once-solid pockets of support (losing Arab Americans in Michigan, throwing the evangelicals a curve with his offhand, last-minute endorsement of gay civil unions, etc), how the news cycle has turned against him, all that. But for shorthand what I did was take the Nickolodeon Poll for kids, which has correctly predicted the last four elections, and work from there. The bright youngsters who took part in this poll, 400,000 strong, voted Kerry 57, Bush 43. Since kids are naturally exuberant, until it's beaten out of them by the System, I shaved off two points from Kerry, gave those two to Bush. Kerry 55, Bush 45, that's my lighter than air prediction. One complication: the networks are broadcasting news of a new bin Laden videotape, a pre-Halloween scare. I have no idea how this tape will play out politically since the specific contents are unclear as yet--whether it will rally lots of voters to the president out of fear or remind them that Bush for all his Terror Fighter swagger hasn't been able to nab this guy. Or perhaps it will be a wash for both candidates. The nonreaction of the stock market to word of a new bin Laden tape suggests this. But it's a tricky business for Bush should he tout this tape as proof the evildoers are still out there, since Kerry can then toss back the failure to capture bin Laden at Tora Bora--a storyline he's already established. 10.29.04 4:06PM · LINK · Pings (1)

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64486)	10/30/2004 6:40:43 PM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 89467

"...this campaign comes down to tribal loyalty in Ohio this week, I had conversation with a bright kid in college he is an Honors student majoring in Economics he admitted the outsourcing was a disaster for the economy he agreed that the seeds of Fascism have been sowed by the president he admitted that the military has permitted too much looting, as in bomb munitions BUT HE SAID BUSHY IS THE RIGHT MAN FOR THE JOB I questioned his intellectual process, said his voting process was more primitive & tribal than intellectual, called it pathetic, and walked away..." Message 20707028

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64486)	10/30/2004 7:31:35 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Respond to of 89467

Bush's invitation only stump speeches morph: In a campaign that is largely being waged in the Upper Midwest, Bush likes to taunt Kerry's connections to the elites on the East and West coasts. "At one time in this campaign, he actually said the heart and soul of America can be found in Hollywood," Bush said in Toledo, Ohio, drawing boos from his supporters. He quietly dropped that line at his next speech, when he stood next to actor and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. It came back Saturday morning. sfgate.com

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64486)	10/30/2004 7:36:28 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

OBL: We did not find it difficult to deal with Bush and his administration, because it is similar to regimes in our countries, half of which are ruled by the military and the other half are ruled by the sons of kings and presidents. We have a long experience with them. Both types include many who are full of arrogance and greed. This resemblance became clear in the Bush the father's visits to the region. ... He wound up being impressed by the royal and military regimes and envied them for staying decades in their positions and embezzling the nation's money with no supervision. He passed on tyranny and oppression to his son, and they called it the Patriot Act, under the pretext of fighting terror. Bush the father did well in placing his sons as governors and did not forget to pass on the expertise in fraud from the leaders of the (Mideast) region to Florida to use it in critical moments.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64486)	10/30/2004 9:57:22 PM
From: geode00	Respond to of 89467

1. A Republican controlled House made it impossible for the spineless Dems to impeach Bush or even to seriously question his horrendous policies. 2. The spineless Dems have another chance to stop being spineless. I doubt they'll take the bait. 3. It's time for more parties. It's well past time for the majority of people to fight tooth and nail for their own self interests (as opposed to their own selfish interests which the RNC does too much of all by itself.) 4. It's wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy past time for the media to lie itself out of existence. It would be better to have amateur, on location journalists instead of 'professional' bureaus reporting on nothing and repeating it endlessly.