Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (55189)	10/30/2004 6:42:21 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

The latest update from Josh Marshall.... __________________________________________ October 30, 2004 -- 05:49 PM EDT talkingpointsmemo.com A short note on the race, the polls, and what the Bush camp is calling bin Laden's "little gift." The next few days phone polling probably amounts to one of the biggest industries in the United States. So it's interesting to look at the results of last night's post-gift polling. First the four tracking polls released today and thus including roughly one-third of calls after the release of the OBL tape. In Zogby's, Kerry moved up one point. In Rasmussen's, Kerry moved up one point. In WaPo/ABC, Kerry moved up two points. In Tipp, Bush moved up two points. Two other national polls were released (at least that I've seen), Newsweek and Fox. One third of the Newsweek poll was done last night. And in their poll Bush was up over Kerry by 50% to 44%. That's four points better than the Newsweek poll the previous week that had Bush over Kerry 48% to 46%. Look, though, at the Fox poll. Fox did a poll Wednesday and Thursday night. And then they did another poll with calls Thursday and Friday night. So the common denominator is that both polls had calls Thursday night. And half the calls in the second poll were done post-gift. The first Fox poll had Bush up 5% (50% to 45%) and the second had him up 2% (47% to 45%). Now, does this mean the bin Laden tape is giving a boost to Kerry? Of course, not. These are tiny changes. And it's altogether possible that this small shift is simply the result of statistical 'noise' -- numbers wobbling around within the polls' margins of error. But it should put at least some damper on the notion that the release of the OBL tape would lead to some sudden Bush surge. At least if the pundits are listening. -- Josh Marshall