Amir Taheri contributes to the discussion of the OBL tape - in today's NY post:
OSAMA THE IMPOTENT
BY: AMIR TAHERI
October 31, 2004 -- HI, everybody — I'm still around!
This was the gist of Osama bin Laden's latest videotaped mes sage as broadcast by his favorite television channel al-Jazeera late Friday night.
The fugitive terror mastermind wanted to say that he was alive, in good health, self-confident and in a place safe enough to make and distribute videotapes. Oh yes, and he wanted to say that he has been watching Michael Moore's "Farenheit 9/11."
The timing was no coincidence. The fugitive meant to influence the outcome of the American presidential election. He couched his message in such a way that, whoever wins next Tuesday, he would be able to claim part of the credit.
While bin Laden's fire was mostly aimed at Bush, whom he accused of having "deceived and tricked" the Americans for four years, he did not offer a clear endorsement of Sen. John Kerry. The most he could do for Kerry was to assert that "liberals," presumably meaning Kerry, could be as strong on security as anyone else. But few people have forgotten that bin Laden's first attack against the World Trade Center came in 1993, when Bill Clinton, a "liberal," was president.
A MORE careful reading of bin La den's text, however, reveals his no torious thirst for publicity and self-aggrandizement.
For the first time, he claims the copyright for the 9/11 attacks, seeking to end rumors that the operation was planned and carried out without him being informed of the specifics.
Indirectly, the fugitive is rejecting the theory that it was Khalid Sheikh Muhammad who masterminded the 9/11 attacks, and that bin Laden's role was limited to providing the cash. Like a child who wants to take credit, he is crying I did it, I did it!
The tape is interesting for still other reasons.
First, the style: For the first time, bin Laden uses a clean, direct prose, free of blood-curdling hyperbole, childish poetics and flowery rhetoric. This may be because his message is specifically addressed at American voters rather than Islamist militants.
Second, this is a clearly political message. There are no religious motifs, no citations from the Holy Book or the Hadith and no pseudo-theological arguments. Having claimed for years that religion and politics were one, he now acknowledges that they are distinct domains. In that sense he has taken his first step toward secularization.
Third, Bin Laden appears to have abandoned his messianic pretensions. He no longer wants to save humanity from kufr (unbelief) and plant the banner of the Only True Faith on top of every capital in all continents. He is, in fact, reading an op-ed piece written in the style of Michael Moore.
FOURTH, Bin Laden is trying, rather belatedly, to attach himself to politi cal causes that might attract some Arabs. These include the Palestinian cause, a key ingredient of pan-Arab bitterness. But he also speaks of the U.S. intervention in Lebanon in 1982, forgetting the fact that the U.S. Marines and the French paras went there on behalf of the United Nations to prevent Israel from marching on Beirut to capture and kill Yasser Arafat and the entire Palestinian leadership trapped there. Nor does he mention that Arafat and his colleagues were taken to safety in an American ship under U.S. Marine escort.
His selective memory also omits the numerous instances when the Americans came to help Muslims such as in Afghanistan during the Soviet occupation, in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and in Kosovo.
Finally, and here is the most surprising theme of the message, bin Laden is offering the Americans a deal. To cast himself as an honest deal-maker, he takes up some of Michael Moore's themes, especially about President Bush not reacting to the 9/11 attacks fast enough.
The deal is simple, and bin Laden hammers it in more specifically: "Do not play with our security, and spontaneously you will secure yourself."
What does this mean? Translated into practical terms, it means that bin Laden would call off his hounds, if he has any left, provided the United States and its allies stop hunting him down.
Compare this with bin Laden's previous statements, and you will be struck by the change of tone and substance. He is no longer promising to destroy America come what may. Nor is he issuing one of his typical jeremiads about the Americans never again being safe or secure. Nor, again, is there any sign of one of his favorite phrases: "Every street in America will become a river of blood."
Also gone are all his pretensions that his perverted version of Islam provides an alternative world vision.
IN offering a deal to the Americans, bin Laden has few cards to play. He is holed up somewhere with his movements seriously restricted. His group has managed to produce just three videotapes and four audiotapes in four years — not an impressive figure even for amateurs who make home movies. In the past four years, a number of terrorist attacks have been attributed to al Qaeda. But in not a single case, from Bali to Madrid to Islamabad to Tunis, has a clear link with al Qaeda been established.
Most experts agree that the threat comes from a wide variety of terrorist groups with little or no central coordination and command. In any case, the latest State Department estimates indicate a fall in the number of international terror attacks in the past two years compared with the years 2000 and 2001.
More importantly, there has been no terror attack in the United States or in the territory of its closest allies — the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan and Australia.
Theoretically, bin Laden and his closest aides could continue in hiding for years, producing a couple of videos every now and then. But it is clear that they are no longer major-league players in international terrorism.
This does not mean that international terrorism has disappeared. Far from it. What it means is that bin Laden, isolated in hiding as he is, can no longer play a leading role in shaping its strategy.
In fact, one aim of the latest tape may well be to counter recent claims by various terror leaders that bin Laden belongs to the past. One such claim came last month in the form of a videotape from the Uzbek terror leader Tahir Yuldash, who has been located in the roughlands of the Afghan-Pakistani border.
In the hour-long tape, Yuldash does not mention bin Laden at all. Instead, he speaks of a new Jihadist leadership under Mullah Omar. Unlike bin Laden, Yuldash does not offer Americans a deal and renews the Jihadist promise of "destroying America."
SO, what does bin Laden have to offer? His chief asset is name recognition. He has become an iconic figure of terror throughout the world. It is enough for him to send one of his al-Jazeera messages to capture the headlines in the West, though not in the Muslim world. Whatever the outcome of the U.S. election, he can always boast that he had an impact. And who can be sure whether he did or did not?
Appearing on the eve of elections in democratic countries to throw in a political hand grenade is the major asset that bin Laden has left. And it is on that basis that he is offering a deal.
Bin Laden may have the illusion that offering an olive branch (albeit in his own strange way) might pave the way for negotiations with a putative Kerry administration in Washington. There is, however, no chance that any American leader would ever be able to take up the fugitive's offer. E-mail:
amirtaheri@ benadorassociates.com |
