Kerry squeaks ahead in Florida
By Jane Musgrave
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 30, 2004
For the first time this week, U.S. Sen. John Kerry on Friday pulled ahead of President Bush in Florida, according to a poll that has been tracking voter opinion in 10 key states.
Just three days before the election, The Palm Beach Post/Reuters/Zogby International poll showed that 47 percent of likely voters in the Sunshine State supported Kerry, while 45 percent of the 600 surveyed said they supported Bush.
Since Sunday, Bush has enjoyed a lead of 1 percent to 3 percent over the Democrat from Massachusetts.
But in a demonstration of just how volatile and tight the race has become, Florida was just one of six battleground states where allegiances shifted overnight.
While Kerry took Florida and Minnesota from Bush, the president picked up Ohio, Colorado and Iowa. Pennsylvania, which had been deadlocked, shifted slightly toward Kerry.
The president continued to command strong support in New Mexico, where he had a 9 percent lead on Friday. He also is hanging tough in Nevada, where he was up by 7 percent.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, continued its move toward Kerry. Since Tuesday Kerry has widened the gap, and on Friday he held a 5 percent lead over Bush.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Officials from both campaigns dismissed the results for nearly identical reasons.
Matt Miller, a spokesman for the Kerry-Edwards campaign, repeated what has become his mantra: "We think it's been a close race all along and it will be a close race on Election Day."
Brett Doster, executive director of the Bush-Cheney Florida campaign, put it this way: "I don't think it means anything. It's too close to call and it will all come down to turnout."
However, pollster John Zogby said much can be learned from the gridlock that seems to plague the race.
At this stage, incumbent Bush shouldn't be struggling in key states where 131 electoral votes are at stake, he said. Bush's struggles, he said, are Kerry's gains.
Undecided voters historically break toward the challenger at the end of a campaign, he said.
That's why he said he has no compunction about calling the race for Kerry.
"It's a hunch," said Zogby, who is known for his unconventional methods. "I'm looking at the president's numbers as an incumbent, and they're not good."
Undecided voters stand firm
In Florida, like other states, the two rivals are fighting for an incredibly small number of undecided voters and an even smaller number of people who say they support other candidates, such as Ralph Nader.
There has been no significant shift this week among those much-sought-after voters in any state, including Florida.
Many of the undecided, according to Zogby's polls, give Kerry high marks for intelligence and competence but still aren't sure if they can trust him to be decisive.
"Undecideds are agonizing over this, and they flip-flop day by day," Zogby said, "but they're telling us they're going to vote."
Most voters can't understand such fence-sitters. To them, the decision couldn't be more clear-cut.
Donna Speece, 56, a registered Democrat who lives near St. Petersburg, describes her support for Kerry this way: He isn't Bush.
"I think we need a new presence in the White House," said Speece, who participated in the poll. "I think there's so much secrecy in the administration. It scares me to death if he gets reelected."
Sandy Sparling, a retired nurse who lives in Ocala, meanwhile, sees nothing about Bush that's not to like. In fact, she's already voted for him.
"It's just the sincerity I see in his face," said the 64-year-old. "What he has done needed to be done."
Trust, doubt mingle
While much of the talk surrounding the razor-close contest is how it is shaping up to be a repeat of the chaotic 2000 election, the vast majority of Floridians contacted said that the four-year-old memory isn't affecting their decision on whether to vote.
More than 64 percent of those polled on Thursday and Friday said the events of 2000 — leaving the presidency in question for an agonizing 36 days — had no effect on their decision to go to the polls.
Further, despite the hanging chads of the last election and widespread reports this week of problems at early voting locations and missing absentee ballots, 65 percent of Floridians said they are confident elections officials will accurately tally their votes.
However, there are exceptions — namely in South Florida, where the infamous butterfly ballot was born. Those living south of St. Lucie County were much more likely to voice skepticism about the likelihood of a fair election.
Likewise, Democrats, some of whom still insist Bush stole the election from Al Gore, were far more likely to be pessimistic than Republicans. Latinos and blacks were also more cynical than non-Hispanic whites. After the 2000 election, there were reports that in some areas blacks were intentionally prevented from voting.
The poll showed some evidence that young people learned at least one lesson from the disputed election: Those under the age of 24 were more cynical than their older counterparts.
Zogby, for the second time, has added a factor in his polls that voters of all ages can love.
As he did in the 2000 election, he is drawing on a timeless icon to gauge voters' true feelings.
Known as the Wizard of Oz question, he is asking: If you have to vote between the Scarecrow, all heart and no brain, and the Tin Man, all brain and no heart, whom would you choose?
In 2000, the Scarecrow (Bush) tied with the Tin Man (Gore). This time around, the Tin Man represents Kerry.
"So far," Zogby said, "it's looking like the Tin Man."
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