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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jackielalanne who wrote (64670)	10/31/2004 2:13:53 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

If Bush loses... Expect a few defenestrations in the Republican Party, but not a bloodbath IN THE wake of George Bush senior's defeat in 1992, the Republican Party had a collective nervous breakdown. One of the many bizarre manifestations of the breakdown took place at the Heritage Foundation: a group of young conservatives filled a hall with friends before marching in carrying a plastic head of the former president on a plate. The plate was covered with blood-coloured crêpe paper—and the young activists were almost as jubilant as the triumphant Clintonites down in Little Rock. What will happen to the Republican Party if the younger Bush goes the same way as his father next Tuesday? Everything depends on how much he loses by, of course. But let's assume that the opinion polls are right and any defeat is marginal rather than catastrophic. And let's assume that the Republicans retain control of at least one chamber of Congress. What then? Grover Norquist, a Republican who runs Americans for Tax Reform, has a blunt answer to the question: “Nothing.” That looks optimistic. Several groups of people can be expected to get it in the neck. The first are the incompetent realists, which is shorthand for Donald Rumsfeld; had smug old Rummy not made so many mistakes on Iraq, Mr Bush would still be a shoo-in. The neo-conservatives will also be in the firing line for their dreamy depictions of Middle Eastern democracy, though they will surely reappear in another incarnation. If the polls show Mr Bush doing badly with, say, suburban women because of his “southern” stands on stem cells and gay marriage, a few murmurs may be heard even from libertarians. And just about everybody—including, probably, Mr Norquist—will blame Mr Bush's spending binge, known as “big-government conservatism”. So big-government conservatism would go. But what else? You can expect some intellectual fireworks in small-circulation magazines and perhaps the odd public beheading of Bush courtiers (Rummy had better write his memoirs quickly). But don't expect these fireworks to generate a long-running civil war. First, conservatives have embraced the son in a way they never embraced the father. This is not only because Mr Bush has provided the various conservative tribes with all the red meat they crave—from tax cuts to opposition to homosexual marriage. They also like the cut of his jib. They like his set-a-clear-goal-and-stick-to-it leadership style. And they like his willingness to take difficult decisions even if they mean a rocky ride. The majority of conservatives approved of getting rid of Saddam, even if they now lament the pussyfooted execution of the war. economist.com