Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KeithDust2000 who wrote (138366)	11/1/2004 2:01:50 AM
From: Elmer Phud	Respond to of 275872

Keith This is what Hector said: "Physically, we should be able to ramp totally to factory by the end of next year, to be totally converted to 90-nanometers. If there is not total conversion, it will be mostly because there might be some remnants of products that cannot be transitioned from a few customers." Can you provide a link for this please? it might make sense for AMD to tap IBM now for additional 90nm K8 shipments already in H1 next year. I don't think IBM can make K8s. They just have too many process problems.

To: KeithDust2000 who wrote (138366)	11/1/2004 3:26:44 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

@Keith - IBM I have to agree with Elmer (mmhhh ;-) ). We couldn't hear not the smallest hint from a credible source, that fishkill will produce some volume for AMD. The only way would be K8's and with that in mind, I have to ask, why on earth is IBM soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo slooooooooooooooooooow with new AMD-IBM products. Doesn't fit. I have no hard facts in my hand, but the chance for a near term FAB contract with near term (1 HJ. 2005) volume is very small. PS: distri view I could say from here (germany) the same as Mike (IH). XP volume got dry, especially Barton parts. 2500+ to 3000+ are really hard to get (nearly impossible). 3200+ is in relativly good supply, because the price is way to high. 2000+ to 2400+ (+ 2700+) still have some decent volume, but "the good days" are counted ... Sempron's are in really good supply - absolutly no shortages. The same goes to the K8's. From 2800+ to 3400+ not the smallest supply problem. 3500+ are now flooting the market with fair volume in 3700+ and 3800+ region. Still have problems with FX and 4000+, which now come in. BUGGI

To: KeithDust2000 who wrote (138366)	11/1/2004 5:08:48 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: the conversion is going much slower than that. Only 50% of wafer outs is supposed to be 90nm by that time. That's right. It's becoming apparent that dollars that were originally allocated to the FAB30 90nm conversion have been redirected to FAB36. FAB36 was originally going to running little more a pilot line for most of 2006 - at least, that's what AMD has always done new plant/process in the past (remember how FAB30 was brought up?). But this time around, AMD paid IBM around $200 million to rent space and tools so that AMD could develop its 300mm process ahead of time at East Fishkill, instead. Now AMD's going to try to bring up FAB36 at high volume ASAP, working out their 65nm process a year earlier at East Fishkill. Since Intel has gone face first into a performance wall at high speed, the pressure to update FAB30 ASAP evaporated so AMD was able to redirect resources into the acceleration of FAB36.

To: KeithDust2000 who wrote (138366)	11/1/2004 10:32:27 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Keith, There is some seasonality that probably dictates against getting any additional capacity for H1 05. Let's say it is: Q3: 7.50M Q4: 8.25M Q1: 7.50M Q2: 6.75M AMD may gain some share on top of that, let's say .25M or .50M per quarter, so the numbers would be: Q3: 7.50M 7.50M Q4: 8.50M 8.75M Q1: 8.00M 8.50M Q2: 7.50M 8.25M Q3: 8.50M 9.50M there should be still plenty of capacity available. The "problem" or the opportunity comes in Q3 and Q4 of 2005, which is before the Fab 36 comes on line, and dual core becomes popular. AMD should be able to produce 10M 100mm^2 parts, but for a 0.5M dual core, maybe 1.5M single core need to be sacrificed, reducing the capacity to 9M, to produce 0.5M dual core. All the numbers are WAGs, BTW. That's why I posted that the earliest demand for capacity would be for production wafer starts sometimes in Q2 2005 (probably early Q2) for output in Q3 2005, unless we see a miraculout pickup in demand. Joe