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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (150160)	11/1/2004 9:24:25 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Zogby--young and newly registered seem to be the wild cards in determining who wins and zobys weightings vs reality will hold the key to this election imo. How many turnout is one key question and of those that do, are they prone to reflect the expected breakdown for kerry or are the bush newbies and yunguns more motivated in the end to wait on those lines. mike reuters.com Bush Has One-Point Lead on Kerry - Reuters Poll Mon Nov 1, 2004 07:35 AM ET By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush edged into a one-point national lead over Democratic Sen. John Kerry one day before a cliffhanger presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday. Bush led Kerry 48-47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, well within the margin of error, setting up a tense final day in an extraordinarily close race for the White House. Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 48 percent on Sunday. "Each candidate continues to do well among his base constituency," pollster John Zogby said. Only three percent of voters remain undecided. Kerry was favored by young voters -- those between the ages of 18 and 29 -- by 64 percent to 35 percent, but the size of the turnout in that voting bloc is one of the biggest unknowns of Tuesday's election. Zogby said he was calculating young voters would account for 12 percent of the total vote, but a larger share would be a boost for the Massachusetts senator. "Each point it goes higher translates into two-thirds of a percent for Kerry if these numbers hold up," Zogby said. Kerry had a 54-40 percent edge among newly registered voters, another unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually vote. But Bush's strongest issue, national security and the war on terror, moved into second place on the list of most important issues to voters. The economy has been the top issue since the poll started on Oct. 7. Most of the three-day poll was conducted after a threatening new videotape from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden surfaced. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Democrat Al Gore by one point in the daily tracking poll. The poll of 1,208 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with 1.2 percent. Kerry had the lead on Sunday in six of 10 battleground states being polled separately including Florida and Pennsylvania, but Bush had a four-point lead in the critical state of Ohio. A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

To: Keith Feral who wrote (150160)	11/1/2004 12:46:33 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<hunt them down on their own soil> Correct. We can't win against guerrillas who have Safe Havens, places they can recruit/train/fundraise and we can't touch them. So, how do we "wipe out" those Safe Havens? Your answer is, "Send in the Marines." This is wishful thinking, an unrealistic plan, because: 1. we don't have the troops to do it. 2. The only way we can get the troops would be a draft. 3. The American people won't tolerate a draft. 4. Even if we had the troops, and even if the attack succeeded, this method would create more support for our enemies, so 5. They could replace their losses faster than we can kill them. 6. We would end up even more overstretched and overcommitted than we are now, trying to hold down even more hostile populations. Face it, the American Empire is at the point every Empire gets to: overreach. We are like the Roman Empire in 300 AD, trying to hold the Danube-Rhine line. We are like the the Brits after WW2, or Napolean when he reached Moscow: victorious but exhausted, unable to hold what we've conquered. The endgame, the inevitable re-alignment of capabilities and commitments, it's going to be ugly.