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Politics : John Kerry for President? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JakeStraw who wrote (3291)	11/1/2004 9:59:32 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 3515

Check out the assumption Gallup is using....unbelievable! Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said that the race is close but that Bush is in a good position. He disputes Gallup's assumptions about the 3% of likely voters who said they were undecided. Gallup's formula assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent. usatoday.com

To: JakeStraw who wrote (3291)	11/1/2004 12:23:24 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3515

BOOKIES CANNOT SPLIT BUSH AND KERRY IN OHIO CLICK HERE FOR POLITICS BETTING MARKETS US : Electoral Votes of Ohio Tuesday, 2 November 2004 Show all bookmakers Bookmaker Betting Exchange George W Bush 5/6 0.95/1 John Kerry 10/11 0.91/1 Click on the odds to place a bet! All odds checked since 17:16 PM UK According to an Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are in a statistical dead heat for Ohio’s 20 electoral votes. After allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the presidential race stands at Bush 50.1 percent, Kerry 49.2 percent, and others less than one percent. Kerry led Bush, 48 percent to 46 percent, in the October poll. The latest poll was conducted between October 27th and October 31st. The poll claims to have a margin of error of 3.3 percent, and eight hundred and seventy-seven probable voters were interviewed. The closeness in the polls is very much reflected by how the bookmakers view who will win the electoral votes of Ohio. Bluesq and Ladbrokes are unable to split the two candidates, while bet365 and paddy power have Bush as a very marginal favourite. Ever since 1964 the election winner has taken Ohio, and no Republican has ever won without it. It is widely believed that whoever wins the 20 electoral votes of Ohio could well end up in the White House. Despite the closeness in Ohio and the perceived importance, George Bush continues to be the odds-on favourite to stay in power. John Kerry is a best price 11/8 to win the election. readabet.com