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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150197)	11/1/2004 11:36:11 AM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

I left this up to show how it is usually explained. Dealing with two elements is omitted, and I inferred incorrectly. Reading The Fine Print: Margin of Error by Glenn Iwata Poll Popularity Everybody conducts surveys these days. Open up the newspaper and you can read opinion polls on everything from public policy to deodorant. With the proliferation of these surveys, there occasionally will be some fine print below the reported results - a.k.a., the margin of error. Quite often the margin of error is more important than the splashy headlines that tout the results of the poll. This article defines the margin of error and explains how it is calculated. Margin of Error Defined The margin of error is simply a measure of how "precise" the data are. The margin of error is a necessary tool because few organizations have the time or money to survey the entire population on a particular subject. Rather, "samples" of the population are taken using various surveying techniques. As a result, it is necessary to know how precisely the results of the sample reflect true feelings of the entire population. For Example... To explain this concept more clearly, let's say for a moment that you received a report that states, "50% of the Phoenix-area residents remembered seeing McDonald's ads on television." The fine print of this report further states that there is a "margin of error of plus or minus 10% at the 95% level of confidence." Translation: If 100 surveys were completed with Phoenix residents, the true percentage answer (i.e., if every Phoenix resident completed the survey) would fall between 40% and 60% in 95 of the 100 surveys. Some people mistakenly say, "The sample is 95% accurate." But remember, the margin of error is a measure of precision, not accuracy. Ultimately, the bottom line is that the 10% margin of error is a pretty wide margin. The real answer could just as likely be 40%, or 60%, or any other number in between. The best estimate of the sample is that 50% of the population saw the commercials. westgroupresearch.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150197)	11/1/2004 11:45:18 AM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I get it now, you explained it poorly. Thanks for the help, I will try to keep the business about the compound interval in mind. For the rest, you are mistaken, I ignored nothing. Oh, and you are unbelievably obnoxious.