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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (82445)	11/1/2004 12:23:38 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793843

HEWITT - Everything --everything-- looks very good for George W. Bush, especially the decision to drop the Veep into Colorado Springs today to help Pete Coors keep the Senate in GOP hands. Zogby begins his move to Bush, and Quinnipiac has Bush up 8 in Florida and Pennsylvania tied. Going to be tough to get all those "new voters" the desperate Dems are touting to the polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania tomorrow, given the weather --and the fact that many of them don't exist. The machine that Rove built is real, however, and observing it here in Colorado up close, amazingly effective. Four years ago the DUI body-slammed Bush's momentum, and then the networks wrongly called Florida for Gore, crushing the GOP turn-out in the early evening wherever voting was still underway. Perhaps pollsters will finally figure out how to do their job with a set of real numbers from a presidential election not blind-sided and then manipulated. As usual, Michael Barone has a can't miss column. He makes the very reassuring point that Al Gore couldn't find a way to pry even one state from Bush's grip in 2000 despite his legions of lawyers, and uses New Hampshire as the example to illustrate the point that the worries about the "litigation margin" are overblown. But Fred Barnes is right to worry that the Dems' Bush-hating may have done permanent damage to their elites' (and MSM's) approach to politics. Kevin Drum gives it away today with a hilarious "The Republicans are doomed even if they win" post-mortem. Short response: This was first written in 1964, then in 1984. It is written by lefties whether Republicans win or Republicans lose. But the party of freedom abroad and low taxes at home grows as freedom spreads and prosperity grows. Plus there is that little problem the Dems have of not being credible on national security. But the key takeaway from Kevin is he his beginning his effort to help the left climb-down from a year of "Bush is doomed" MoveOn/Howard Dean/George Soros fueled nuttiness. And don't forget "Curly's Curse," the arrival of which allowed the Red Sox to escape the curse of the Bambino. Here's senior Bush strategist Matthew Dowd's final memo of the campaign (HT: KerrySpot): "Heading into Election Day, President Bush is well-positioned to win re-election. The average of all national polls released in the past 48 hours shows the President leading John Kerry by 2 points, 48% to 46%. President Bush’s lead is built on the higher intensity of his support compared to Kerry’s. As the Pew analysis noted, President Bush “registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984.” Furthermore, early and absentee voting has built up the President’s lead even before the polling places open. The recent CBS News/New York Times survey reveals that 20% of voters have already cast their ballots, and President Bush leads among them by 8 points, 51% to 43%. There has been much discussion about how undecideds will split their vote going in to Election Day. Based on historical and current data, I expect undecideds to, at worst, split their votes between President Bush and John Kerry. First, looking at the past three incumbent re-elections, undecideds have split their votes between the incumbent and the challenger. In both the National Election Survey and Gallup’s own pre-Election Day polling for the last three elections, undecideds have split evenly. Also, from my reading of previous Gallup allocations, they allocated undecideds between the challenger and the incumbent in 1976, 1980, 1984, and 1996. The only time that they allocated undecideds to the challenger in total, 1992, they ended up far off the mark! Second, our own internal data shows remaining undecideds to have similar image views of President Bush and John Kerry. President Bush has a 50% approval rating among undecideds and they think that he will win re-election by a 3 to 1 margin. This would argue for at least splitting undecideds evenly, if not allocating more to President Bush" More later if any news develops, but that is highly unlikely. hughhewitt.com