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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (150226)	11/1/2004 12:48:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 281500

This is the only way i can explain the polls moving to kerry not bush after obl. no, Bush unfavorables are too high--when that happens, undecideds tend to go with the challenger, not the incumbent. obl's tape has minimal effect on the undecideds--even Bush has said he doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about him. At this point, Iraq dwarfs obl, IMO.

To: michael97123 who wrote (150226)	11/1/2004 1:09:02 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

Hardly anyone who was not already commited to Kerry would be swayed by the Ossama bin Laden tape against Bush. I do not think that tape affected tracking polls much, because it had not settled into consciousness......

To: michael97123 who wrote (150226)	11/1/2004 3:39:10 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Perhaps, just perhaps some conservative/moderate americans were beguiled by bin into believing he would call the war off if we ceded some territory (SA) to him and left him alone. These same folks may even believe and hell it may be true that bin laden at least in the short run would guaranttee oil to the west in such a scenario. Nice, Mike. Subtle point, forcefully made. I'm sure that if OBL takes over SA - which is his most important goal anyway - he will become very rich and powerful... and, of course, even much more statesman-like than on the recent tape. Doesn't have to be OBL personally, could be someone else who shares his ideas. Would he sell us oil? Certainly. Clash of Civilizations is when the Muslim world is controlled by theocratic extremists -- and WE do business with them.