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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seventh_son who wrote (31996)	11/1/2004 1:33:23 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

to me the most interesting was this: <Speaking of ebb and flow, the dollar is not on some permanent downward path. It will find a bottom, probably ridiculously low, the trade deficit thing will get sorted out and then the dollar will start to rise. As an example, I think Europe has more long term structural problems than the US (I am speaking in terms of decades, not years) and would not be surprised to see the dollar and the euro at parity in 10-15-20 years. The more things change....> There will be a time to get out of precious metals and commodities and switch to blue chip growth stocks and long term treasuries. When? Somewhere between 2 and 20 years to narrow it down. <g>

To: seventh_son who wrote (31996)	11/1/2004 1:56:16 PM
From: seventh_son	Respond to of 39344

The thing about currencies is that when they start to move and whatever central bank or other restraining forces are overcome, they can really move. It may seem crazy to think that a currency, representing trillions of dollars of the net worth of claims on a country's government, could suddenly be revalued by 10% or so in a single day with no particular major event as a trigger, but it has happened many times before to currencies as important even as the British pound. I guess in a way, it is like an avalanche... forces build up and then one day a small noise can tip it over, until a new equilibrium is reached. With even the US dollar, anything could happen, and the only thing to predict is unpredictability. I used to try to date a girl who worked for a financial institution and who seemed offended by my suggestion that currency moves did not represent some sort of highly rational, efficient, and dignified process of honest and respectable global bankers and money traders making their careful, gentlemanly, all-knowing assessments on things. To that girl, who is still probably working for peanuts at that institution (and probably by this time looks like an old bag), I say, get some popcorn and pull up a seat, because one of these days we may see some pretty spectacular moves that will take everyone by surprise, and a lot of these "rational" bankers may be in panic mode.