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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (150257)	11/1/2004 2:47:52 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

There are alot of people who didnt vote last time or are young. Since the polls show kerry 60-40 among the young and something similar among newbies, they think that this is somehow not factored into the polling. Well it is but the various pollster may be underestimating or overestimating. Zogy for every % more or less in turn out, kerry and bush either rise or fall 0.75% respectively. And none of this tells us about committment of these new voters as in who is more likely to stand in line in the rain. Juan Williams Fox liberal on the sunday show was clearly worried about black vote along these same lines. Everyone figures, black vote will be close to 90/10 margin of 2000 for kerry. But he says he is finding because of anti-gay attitudes in the black community, that the opposition to gay marriage by black ministers made it more likely for the black vote to be 80/20 than 90/10. If this is the case and black voting does not increase enough to offset it, the margin in Philadelphia for instance might not be enough to offset the rest of the state. Now go deeper into the midwest where black clergy might even be tougher on gay marriage and you can see the possibility of positive surprises for bush in ohio, minnesota, wisconsin, and michigan. Also possible that the closeness in NJ reflects this as well although NJ will go Kerry. Mike