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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (82499)	11/1/2004 4:56:56 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793964

I think RCP just averaged in a couple of bad polls. Kerry Spot - INTERESTING NOTE ON OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA [11/01 04:35 PM] In the RealClearPolitics average, Kerry's lead in Pennsylvania (.8 points) and New Hampshire (1.3) is actually smaller than Bush's lead in Ohio (1.6). Not something I would have expected, based on the coverage out of those respective states. FUNNY BUSINESS WITH NETWORKS' EARLY CALLS? [11/01 03:14 PM] As a last-ditch desperation move, I could see certain networks (COUGHcbsCOUGH) making the same Florida mistake as 2000 — calling a state for Kerry... based on their "interpretation" of the early exit poll data. "Interpretation" in this case meaning, "because they want to." I hope the Bush-Cheney team is prepared for certain networks calling as many swing states for Kerry as early as possible, and making corrections much later in the night. There were no consequences to the networks in 2000, so why worry, right? UPDATE: Middle Cheese reports, “Because of the debacle in 2000, the Bush folks think the networks were sufficiently embarrassed and humiliated by the way they called certain states. But the campaign has established lines of communication into all of the major networks just in case problems arise.” I’m sorry, I don’t think “networks” and “sufficiently embarrassed and humiliated” belong in the same sentence. Elsewhere, the Bush team has estimated that the early call in Florida in 2000 cost them 40,000 votes in the panhandle. Even if they’re exaggerating by a factor of four (and I don’t know that number is wrong), a 10,000 vote margin would have done a lot to depressurize the Florida recount.