Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Proof that John Kerry is Unfit for Command -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RMF who wrote (24210)	11/1/2004 11:40:53 PM
From: Cisco	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27181

Tomorrow should prove interesting. I am expecting to see two of the conventional wisdoms proven wrong in this election. The first is that the undecided will go 2:1 to Kerry. Because of the high intensity of emotions in this election there are fewer undecided this time around. I believe that many of the ones that are left will simply not vote. Also, many are predicting a higher than normal percentage of voters in the 18-29 year age group. I am expecting to see this group come in around 14-15%. In making my predictions, I tried not to rely on republican or democrat polls. I also weighted the polls differently depending upon the state. Some polls are better in some states than others. I then compared the predictions of these polls to actual outcomes in the 2000 race as well as voting trends in past several elections in those states. Florida, for example has been trending republican in the last couple of elections, esp. in 2002. This along with the republicans in control of state government should be enough in my opinion to deliver the state to Bush, but this is by no means certain with all the polls running within the margin of error. Ohio has broken toward Bush in the past week. A week ago, I had it going to Kerry. If these two states go Bush, the election in my mind is over. If Bush and Kerry split these two states, it could be a long night. If Kerry takes both, he will probably be the next President. So I guess we will see sometime tomorrow night. Over the weekend, I posted elsewhere on SI that I thought Kerry was ahead. After looking at the data a little closer, I believe he will come up just short.