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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Karen Lawrence who wrote (55729)	11/2/2004 1:48:28 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

Still frighteningly close to the Rat Poll :-) THE ELECTION MODEL Created by TruthIsAll Last update: Nov.1, 2004 7:00 pm Final Projection Kerry 337 EV / 51.80% Bush 201 EV / 48.20% The model projects Kerry the winner in 27 states: AR, CA, CO, CT, DE DC, FL, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI Election Model Projections If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, the Electoral Vote Simulation model calculates that John Kerry has a 99.8% probability of winning an electoral vote majority by a 337-201 margin and 51.80% of the popular vote. Kerry won 4990 of 5000 Monte Carlo simulated election trials. Based on the average of eighteen national polls, the National Vote Projection model calculates that Kerry has a 99.99% probability of winning a popular vote majority with 51.63% of the vote. For the final projection, the base case undecided/other allocation assumption to Kerry has been changed from 60% to 75%. This is consistent with the opinion of professional political pollsters. To gauge the sensitivity of the expected electoral vote and win probability to the allocation, the model calculated five scenarios: 60%, 67%, 75%, 80% and 87%. Bush Job Approval: 48.50% (11 Poll average) The Gospel according to the Polling Gurus: 1- If an incumbent is polling below 50%, he's in trouble. Bush is barely averaging 47%. 2- If an incumbent's approval rating is below 50%, he's in trouble. Bush is at 48.50%. 3- If an incumbent has less than a 3%-4% lead in the final polls, he’s in trouble. Bush is tied with Kerry. 4- Undecided voters break for the challenger. Poll Updates: Zogby: Kerry 47 Bush 48 (Kerry -1) TIPP: Kerry 44 Bush 45 (Kerry +4) Rasmussen: Kerry 47.4 Bush 48.8 (Kerry -.4) FOX: Kerry 48 Bush 45 (Kerry +1) WaPo: Kerry 48 Bush 48 (Kerry -1) Florida and Ohio scenarios: If Kerry 1) wins FL and loses OH, he has a 99.3% win probability with 307 EV. 2) loses FL and wins OH, he has a 98% win probability with 300 EV. 3) loses FL and loses OH, he has a 75% win probability with 280 EV. 4) wins FL and wins OH, he has a 99.8% win probability with 327EV. geocities.com