Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (82866)	11/2/2004 5:47:30 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793828

HORSERACE - "The Man" Speaks... ...and throws more cold H20 on those exist polls, which -- by the by -- are smelling more and more like Kedwards plants. Remember that they have McCurry and Lockhart, two masters of managing the media spin cycle. Gov. Bob Wise (D-WV) is out right now spinning these numbers...what does that tell you? He is a poll watcher for the GOP in Anytown, USA. Heavily Democratic precinct -- the Democrats were like "white on rice" there. By the time he left today at 1 PM, he said that about 30% of their voting targets had voted (80 voters). Meanwhile, the estimate at the precinct was that 50% of the total vote had been cast (300 voters). We know that the exit polls are oversampling women. If what "The Man" has found is happening nationwide, then they might be undersampling Republicans. He also noted that Moveon.org was at the precinct but looked "pathetic." They were sitting outside the precinct in a Subaru trying to solicit people to come talk to them! The only ones taking them up on it were the old, gray hippies. "The Man" reminds me of an important point: the GOP GOTV force has not yet begun making its telephone calls. That starts at 5 PM. You can get no indication of the race from the exit polling because both campaigns have the ability to react to the data they receive. The GOP seems to have better data than the Dems, and certainly better data than the Subaru-driving Moveon folks. Another thing: Myster Pollster notes that there is no survey ever done to measure whether GOPers vote early or later. My guess is that one of the reasons for this is that VNS never released a scrubbed copy of their mid-day totals. Anecdotally, in 2000 -- VNS early returns heavily favored Gore (putting him up in AZ, FL and CO). I am out to vote now...have decided, grundgingly, to vote for that maniac Alan Keyes... posted by Jay @ 3:09 PM 32 comments Ignore the exit polls... The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo. I know you are all desperate for information, but this is not what you are looking for. Please no posting of exit polling data on this site. Personal observation: The numbers I have seen are extremely implausible in at least five out of fourteen different polls -- that casts a heavy fog over all of them. The rest of them are so close to one another that nobody really knows whether or not who even won the AM vote. Seriously. Personal anecdote: The early exit polling in 2000 did not favor Bush at all. I remember coming home from class in 2000 and discovering that Bush was "toast" in the big states...and that he was putting together a "small state strategy" for victory. Well...we all know how that one worked out.