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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (83022)	11/2/2004 10:38:01 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793782

Bret's comments about the exit polls reminds me that "Horserace" did a good post on the margin of error in them. Here is his latest Ohio/Florida update. Another FL Panhandle Good news... Calhoun County 2004 Bush 3,780 0.6341 Kerry 2,116 0.3550 2K Bush 2,873 0.5028 Gore 2,155 0.3771 Net 946 Votes posted by Jay @ 9:15 PM 0 comments Big News from Brevard County, FL Big GOP stronghold... "Bush net gain in votes over 2000 is 24,803 with 95.5% reporting. Bush 57.71% Kerry 41.50%" posted by Jay @ 9:14 PM 0 comments OH Update... ... Bush wins Lake County 51%/49%. This is closer than in 2000, but voter turnout increased 20%, so the jury is still out on how much the net gain or loss is. Seneca County: With 37% of the precincts reporting, Bush is up 6% over his 2000 results in this small rural county. In the reporting Ohio Valley counties, while returns still early, Bush has increased his margin of victory by 2.08% Erie County (West): With 43% of the precincts reporting Bush is up 9% over 2000 results. This is huge even in this small rural county. Crawford County (West): Up over 5% for Bush over 2000 with 22% of the precincts reporting in this small rural county. Bush holding steady in Central Ohio...currently winning 57.24% (58.87 in 2000). Northeast: Bush is still up 7.68% relative to his 2000 percentage in this heavily Democratic area. West Central Ohio: 3.34% ahead in Allen (relative to 2000) 1.66% ahead in Franklin (relative to 2000) 1.33% ahead in Hancock (relative to 2000) 0.68% ahead in Logan (relative to 2000) -3.19% behind in Marion (relative to 2000) (very small data set) 2.83% ahead in Morrow Allen County (relative to 2000) (north central Ohio) is the only one close to completed, with 88% of the precints in. The total turnout is about 95% of last years there. Mercer County (West): Bush is showing small gain in Mercer County with 26% of the precincts reporting. Bush up at 71% vs. 68% in 2000. posted by Jay @ 9:02 PM 0 comments My Hawkeye says Barone is Wrong on Broward... ...he says..."With 84% precincts reporting the vote Bush net vote increase over 2000 is 49,026!" posted by Jay @ 9:00 PM 9 comments More on SW Florida... ... Bush Nets Votes in the Following Counties: Desoto: 4,486 Pasco: 19,165 Desoto: 664 Hernando: 1,998 Kerry Nets Votes in Charlotte: 692 Sarasota: 2,893 Lee: 900 posted by Jay @ 8:42 PM 1 comments Bush Flips Osceola County Blue in 2000...Red in 2004. He nets 4,486 votes. Osceloa is the county south of Orlando. Gore won it with 51.12% in 2000. Bush is on track to win it with 51.72% posted by Jay @ 8:38 PM 13 comments Another Panhandle County... ...another big Bush boost. This one is from tiny Layfayette County...Bush nets 733 votes, increasing his total by 7%. posted by Jay @ 8:36 PM 1 comments Bush closes gap in Monroe County... ...in the Southeast tip of Florida. Bush nets 235 votes there relative to 2000. posted by Jay @ 8:34 PM 1 comments More Good OH News... This one from West Ohio... "With 23% of the precincts reporting, Darke County is up 5% over four years ago for Bush. 68% in this small rural county." posted by Jay @ 8:23 PM 0 comments Ditto for Central OH results are quite preliminary... Says one of my Hawkeyes..."With 10% of the vote in Franklin Co (Columbus), Bush is about 1% ahead of 2000. In Allen Co, he's about 5% ahead." posted by Jay @ 8:22 PM 1 comments The early word on West Central Ohio... ...Bush is beating his 2000 margins: Bush + 3.34% in Allen County relative to 2000 + 1.66% in Franklin County + 1.33% Hancock + 0.68% in Logan -3.19% in Marion (very small data set) + 2.83% ahead in Morrow posted by Jay @ 8:20 PM 0 comments Early signs look good in NE Ohio So far, Bush is doing 6.36% better than he did in 2000 there. Things are still early, but this is a good sign. Note that Kerry must improve his margins in NE OH to win this election. posted by Jay @ 8:18 PM 0 comments Correction on Flagler... ...it has gone from blue to red. Last time it went to Gore by 1,284 votes. This time it went to Bush by 1,061 votes. jaycost.blogspot.com

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