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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (83080)	11/2/2004 11:33:06 PM
From: Neil H	Respond to of 793717

Elections - AP Senate Republicans Retain Control of Senate 11 minutes ago By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent WASHINGTON - Republicans renewed their grip on the Senate Tuesday night and reached out for more, capturing Democratic seats across the south. Democratic leader Tom Daschle faced a strong challenge in South Dakota. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All Election Coverage Republican victories for Democratic-held seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia assured the GOP of at least 50 seats in the Senate that convenes on Jan. 3. Under complicated rules in effect, that assured Republicans of control regardless of the outcome of the presidential election. A victory by President Bush (news - web sites) would give Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) the ability to break ties. A victory by Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) would force him to resign his seat in Congress, and give the GOP a 50-49 advantage until his successor was elected in late spring or summer. Democratic State Sen. Barack Obama, a political star in the making, easily captured a seat formerly in Republican hands in Illinois, and will be the only black among 100 senators when the new Congress convenes in January. "I am fired up," he told cheering supporters in Illinois. Elsewhere, Republicans were more likely to be celebrating. Rep. Johnny Isakson (news, bio, voting record) claimed Georgia for the Republicans, and Rep. Jim DeMint (news, bio, voting record) took South Carolina. Rep. Richard Burr (news, bio, voting record) soon followed suit in North Carolina. In each case, Democratic retirements induced abmitious young members of Congress to give up safe House seats to risk a run for the Senate. Ticket-splitting had been the key to the Democrats' slim chances all along. Of the nine most competitive races on the ballot, all of them in the South and West, Kerry made virtually no effort to contest Bush and many Democratic challengers ran as conservatives. But in Oklahoma, a state where Democrats long touted their chances, former Rep. Tom Coburn captured the votes of three-fourths of the president's supporters. That was enough to trounce Rep. Brad Carson (news, bio, voting record) and keep the seat in GOP hands. Republicans hold 51 seats in the current Senate. Democrats have 48, along with the support of independent Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont. A combination of factors — the Constitution, the calendar and the presidential race among them — meant that Republicans need 50 seats to hold control, and Democrats must gain 51 to take it away. Most veteran lawmakers of both parties coasted to new terms after campaigns against little-known and poorly funded opponents. But there were exceptions. Daschle and former Rep. John Thune were in an impossibly close race with votes counted in one-third of their sparsely populated state — separated by fewer than 1,000 votes. Theirs was a campaign on which the two men spent $26 million — an estimated $50 for easch registered voter. After a particularly caustic campaign, Bunning, 73, fell behind Democrat Dan Mongiardo early in the evening before moving ahead. With votes counted in all but three of the state's 3,482 precincts, he led 50.5 to 49.5 — a margin of fewer than 20,000 votes out of 1.7 milliion cast. Obama, 43, had no difficulty dispatching Alan Keyes (news - web sites), a black conservative whose outspoken views against abortion and homosexuality earned the disdain from some members of his own party. Even so, the Democratic state legislator's victory in a race to replace Republican Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (news, bio, voting record) capped a remarkable rise. He first gained national prominence this summer when his party's presidential candidate, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, tapped him to deliver the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention. Isakson, who replaced former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in Congress in 1999, coasted to victory in Georgia. He triumphed over Rep. Denise Majette (news, bio, voting record) in a campaign to replace Sen. Zell Miller (news, bio, voting record) — a Democrat who crossed party lines to deliver a memorably anti-Kerry speech at the Republican National Convention.

To: mistermj who wrote (83080)	11/2/2004 11:33:32 PM
From: gamesmistress	Respond to of 793717

KERRY IS UNDERPERFORMING GORE [11/02 11:27 PM] Want an interesting indicator? John Kerry is doing worse than Al Gore did in a lot of places. In Delaware, Gore beat Bush 55 to 42 — a 13 point margin. This year, Kerry is winning 53 to 46 with 92 percent of the precincts in, a 7 point margin. In New Jersey, Gore beat Bush 56 to 41 — a 15 point margin. This year, with 93 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry is leading 53 to 46 percent, a 7 point margin. In Connecticut, Gore beat Bush 56 to 39 — a 17 point margin. This year, with 61 percent of the precincts reporting (okay, it's a little early), Kerry is leading 53 to 45 percent, an 8 point margin. Thought one: This sort of thing is going to make a difference in the popular vote. Thought two: How likely is it that Kerry going to overperform Gore in the swing states, but do worse in these blue states? BUSH EXCEEDING PERFORMANCE IN CERTAIN OHIO COUNTIES [11/02 11:18 PM] Jim Irvine, head of Ohioans for Concealed Carry has been working with the Bush campaign. He points out that Bush is exceeding how he performed in Cuyohoga County in 2000, and reports from the state's outlying counties are that Bush exceeded his 2000 performance there. Winning Ohio is starting to look difficult for John Kerry. UPDATE: I am told that MSNBC is reporting that the Cleveland vote is not looking strong enough for Kerry - the black turnout not high enough and too pro-Bush because of gay marriage issue. Kerry Spot reader Andy observes, "Old rule was we had to lose Cuyahoga by no more than 100,000. Voinovich's blowout helped Bush there." CHECKING IN ON NEW JERSEY [11/02 10:39 PM] Remember New Jersey? That state that got called for Kerry at exactly 8:00 p.m. EST? With 83 percent of precincts reporting, Kerry leads 52 percent to 47 percent. A solid win, but Bush is running 11 points better than he did in 2000. UPDATE: I don't think Bush will win New Jersey (although I'm curious as to how close it will get). But Kerry Spot reader Chris suggests the numbers may tighten: With 82% of precincts reporting, CNN shows no results returned for South Jersey Bush strongholds like Burlington County - and without those votes Bush is only 5 points behind Kerry. Looks like NJ could be a squeaker for Kerry. Burlington County is the largest county in NJ and has been growing more populous. Absolutely no results have been returned from this county. We are solidly Republican and have kept Chris Smith in office, and he is rated one of the most conservative congressme in the nation. Another glimmer of hope, NJ has several Military installations for such a small state - Ft. Monmouth, McGuire AFB, Fort Dix Reserve and at least three more. nationalreview.com