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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (14744)	11/3/2004 2:17:02 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

No, Grace & I don't agree w/ each other about much of anything & recently had some spats publicly & privately so I think that post to you was really meant to me. I really don't want any advice from Grace. I'm assuming further depreciation in the $ and want to do something with a portion of my cash that makes it pretty liquid. I've been thinking over various strategies.

To: mishedlo who wrote (14744)	11/3/2004 2:24:05 PM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 116555

The New Zealand dollar may turn out to be the best, it's just at this particular conjunction the chart looks as if the probabilities for a further advance or a retracement are equal while the risk/return aren't. If it were to break through the previous high the probability of it rising further is increased. If it were to retrace without falling through the previous low than it would also have a higher probability of being a successful "hedge". The problem with a 6 month CD bought today is that you are locked in for what could be the entire time it takes for either of these moves to work themselves out. It may work out next week if it jumps up, you'd have a lower possible gain but you'd have also reduced the downside risk (something which sounds counterintuitive). The Aussie looks better to me but it also needs some workout and the yield insurance isn't as high but it has less inherent risk of losing principle. My rule of thumb is that if the yield looks too good to be true, it usually is.