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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (14785)	11/3/2004 10:02:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Republican Victory Implies New Incentives To Save comments anyone? northerntrust.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (14785)	11/3/2004 10:16:49 PM
From: TH	Respond to of 116555

CalulatedRisk, Some very good thoughts. I too have been mostly cash the past couple of years. I'll make a high probability play now and then, but never fully invested. I do like gold and its been a decent play the past 18 months, both in bullion and with a PM fund. A very high percentage of my liquid assets are in gold, and those holdings are currently a profitable hedge against the dollar. I too prefer to be long, but I think it will be a very long time before "buy and hold" is a winning play. Dow 5K? It is possible, but I'm not betting on it at this point. Its going to be some time before the Benjamin Graham formula can be applied with confidence. As for your last question I would say it is wise to be cautious. I miss lots of good plays by being too cautious, but I also avoid large losses. I was spanked pretty hard in 99, and those lessons, painful as they were, have taken root. The only area where we really differ is on the timing of the psychology change. I think it will come sooner than most think. Then again, my timing is not very good. I'm often early or late, but I'm working to improve that. Thanks very much for your thoughts and good luck. TH