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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (65975)	11/4/2004 12:12:25 AM
From: abuelita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

thanks fuzzy - that was a good read.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (65975)	11/4/2004 12:49:53 AM
From: geode00	Respond to of 89467

"What counts for the near-term and mid-term, the next 3 5 years, is that world oil supply will almost inevitably trail world oil demand. That is, growth of world supply after increasingly difficult and costly compensation for annual depletion losses now running at about 1.25 1.5 Mbd, and set to increase, will be unable to satisfy the essentially inelastic and accelerating growth of demand. This will continue until and unless oil prices rise well above 75 USD/bbl, or an intense, worldwide economic recession is triggered through indiscriminate use of the 'interest rate weapon' in the OECD." ========== YEP. Peak worldwide oil production in 2005. Ooops! At about $80/bbl we will revisit, in real dollars, the oil shocks of the 70s. Gee.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (65975)	11/4/2004 10:21:20 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 89467

SUB-ROSA TRADE WAR by Jim Willie CB The winds of war are blowing. What is brewing is dangerous and ominous. Put aside the military warfare waged in Iraq and elsewhere. Adversaries have begun to align in opposition on a financial battlefield. Imagine an old manner of battle to the death from the Old West. A native plains bare-chested warrior and an anglo blue-coat soldier, or a nomadic warrior and an anglo settler/hunter, would be tied arm to arm with a rawhide strip. They would engage in a fierce hand-to-hand battle to the death with knives, unable to gain distance. That is the image in my mind as the upcoming trade war with China forms a foundation with clear directional pulls. The two nations, the USA and China, are inextricably linked through commerce. On the surface, the link appears to be mutually beneficial. Each is put at extreme risk, but for different reasons. Despite the inter-dependence, a titanic battle is soon to begin. The hint of war is unmistakable and unambiguous. It will in its early stages emerge as a “sub-rosa” protectionist exercise (hostility under the table), sure to morph into outright trade war. financialsense.com