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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (56484)	11/4/2004 3:45:19 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

I think we're boxed in. We can't raise rates too much or we'll blow the real estate bubble. That would mean certain death

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (56484)	11/4/2004 4:43:09 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

Fair warning - this post contains some serious discussion on the impact of political events on the US economy, financial markets and jobs. If you are a Bush supporter, it is very likely that all this discussion is way beyond your comprehension. Your likely reaction is that I am too negative on America and a traitor. I would like you to know I don’t f**ing care about what you think about what I think. Don’t bother replying to me with your bile and attacks. Dipy, I don't know exactly how the economic downturn will unfold, but I am sure it is going to be the case. For sure the dollar will weaken. Possibly there will be recession in late 2005 and early 2006. Here is what I think are the likely scenarios. This is the best case scenario and almost sure to happen: 1. Continued war in Iraq, tax cuts and increasing budget deficits are bad for the economy going forward. This in itself will weaken the dollar. 2. International disapproval of four more years of Bush will transpire in to fleeing of foreign capital. In the next 3 years, I expect the majority of US Deficits will be financed by US public only. 3. Greenspud and his successor may try to undo the damage by quickly raising the rates. It will only further weaken the economy, recession and job loss will follow. Other possibilities 4. If Bush wants to privatize social security and the spineless republican congress goes with his plan, I think dollar will get decimated a la* third world currencies. Stock markets will rise till it actually happens and then collapse. This is contrary to the conventional wisdom that privatization of social security is good for Wall Street. Bottomline: You cannot be such an irresponsible deficit spender and take a confrontational and alienating foreign policy which turns the very people who finance our deficits. India would love to get the jobs shipped but will say "no, thanks" to investing in US. As a believer in these possibilities, here is what I would do: Short US markets, US dollar and treasuries. Long Euro, European stocks and gold. Here is what I recommend to the Bush supporters: Get on your knees and pray. For God sake, don't bend and pray. For all you know, there might be a gay person behind you. As Bush said in his third debate, he will listen to your prayers and throw you some wood.–nfg-