The coming year will be one of confrontation.
The Iranians will not yield, Bush will not give in, Israel will not remain outside the collision.
Even if it wanted to, Israel will not be able to prevent the Iranians from launching an escalation against it, which will precede and disrupt the American plan.
Iran is provoking the world and the regime intent on curbing nuclear proliferation.
In the election campaign Bush promised not to allow Iran to go nuclear.
Now, encouraged by the renewed trust in him and his policy, strengthened in Congress, freed from electoral considerations, he can turn to advancing the move against the ayatollahs' nuclear project.
The U.S. military and the CIA would have continued the preparations for an operation against Iran even if Kerry had won, but the fact that Bush will remain in the White House ensures immediate continuity.
The election outcome also signals that terrorism did not succeed in frightening the American people to the point where they would change the administration.
General Michael Wooley, head of the U.S. Air Force's Special Operations Command (AFSOC), gave implicit expression to the desire of many of his colleagues when, in a talk about two months ago, he condemned "terrorist victories [which] set dangerous precedents ... leading directly to coalition dissolution." Wooley was referring specifically to the terrorist attack in Madrid on March 11, which "resulted in a Spanish election where the country voted out a government who stood firm against terrorists and voted in one who supported a more nonconfrontational stance."
In July, Wooley went on, the government of the Philippines also capitulated to terrorism by evacuating military forces in return for the release of hostages.
Wooley, who is in active service, left it to his audience to draw the necessary conclusion: The terrorist organizations and the governments that are plotting to harm America will draw special encouragement from the greatest achievement of all - the removal of Bush from office.
Wooley disclosed that AFSOC, the counterpart of the Shaldag and 669 units in the Israel Air Force, are operating clandestinely, mainly at night, from bases in Asian and other countries that have chosen to assist the American battle against terrorism, but maintain a low profile.
The forces are operating within the framework of the Special Forces Command and in cooperation with what the Pentagon refers to by the transparent code name of Other Government Agency (OGA), meaning the CIA.In Israel, the preparations for thwarting Iranian nuclearization have been assigned to the Mossad, the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations.
The Mossad is now so preoccupied with Iran that, according to an IDF major general, it has effectively become the "Institute for Intelligence and One Special Operation." Mossad chief Meir Dagan is being called on not only to remove the threat of Iran's Shihab-3 missile, which can carry a nuclear warhead, but also to do it without noise and showmanship that will entangle Israel in a broad war on the northern front - against Syria and Hezbollah, which are the representatives and tools (in limited form) of Iran.
In the Mossad, as usual, they are whispering that marvelous exploits, "science fiction," have improved the opening conditions of an Israeli operation, if one will be needed. It's a safe assumption that the air force and navy are also preparing, as they have for years, for making long-distance flights and forays involving distances similar to those involved in an operation against Iran.
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In the last issue of the ministry journal Ma'arachot, he warned that in order to launch volleys of thousands of surface-to-surface rockets into northern Israel, Hezbollah would need to make few and brief preparations, making it difficult for Israel to get advance warning.
"Because most of the launches will be from densely populated areas, reaction capability will be limited," wrote the officer, who reflects a militant stream in the military establishment - including, it would seem, in the air force and Northern Command as well.
Israel, therefore, should view such rocket strikes not as "a terrorist act that necessitates a Sisyphean pursuit of the perpetrators, but as a declaration of war by the state from which the missiles were launched and by those who rule it.
"In other words: Get ready for a division of labor - an operation by one or more armies against Iran - and, in its course, for an Israeli operation, either in the form of an initiative or a response, against Syria and Hezbollah.
The IDF's old assessment from the end of the 1980s, to the effect that "Israel will not become involved in a coalition war and will not act as a launching pad for such a war," is no longer valid.
Fifty years after the joint Israeli-British-French operation against Egypt, in October 1956, and for the first time (apart from coordination against Syria to protect Jordan during "Black September" in 1970) in Washington-Jerusalem relations, the victory of the Republicans might engender a joint campaign, this time against Iran and its satellites. In November 2004, Israel is still not prepared for such a move. |
