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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (14894)	11/5/2004 6:07:13 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 116555

UK Industrial Production Falls Again - Downward Revision To Q3 GDP UK industry remains mired in recession. Whichever way one cuts the data , this is the inevitable conclusion. Output was 0.4% lower than the previous month : 0.9% lower than the same month of the previous year : the three months to September were 1.4% lower than the previous three months and the three months to September were 0.4% lower than the same three months of 2003. Will this lead to a downward revision to the already weak, below trend first estimate for Q3 which came in at 0.4%? This is a possibility. In the first estimate for Q3 GDP, the ONS estimated that Q3 industrial production would be 1.1% lower than the previous quarter. Now that we have the September output data, we can see that in fact industrial production is weaker, having fallen 1.4% over the quarter. We make a fast estimate that this is worth approximately 0.05% (lower) on the Q3 calculation. Of course, there could be upward revision to the much larger (more than 4 times as large) services sector estimate for Q3 GDP which could more than compensate for the downward effect from industrial production but this revision - at the very least - would limit the scope of any upward revision to Q3 GDP. Conclusion : This data will clearly be supportive to the current on-hold policy stance of the Bank of England MPC.