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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (14904)	11/5/2004 8:45:42 AM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

zonder, And gold is getting it's wackin! This is interesting. Good Trading TH * * * More Than Half of Americans Say Their Monthly Car Payments Are Enough of a Burden to Prevent Them From Making Big Ticket Purchases, According to the Cambridge Consumer Credit Index Friday November 5, 8:30 am ET ISLANDIA, N.Y., Nov. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- More than half of Americans (56%) say their monthly lease and car payments are enough of a burden to prevent them from making other big ticket purchases, according to the Cambridge Consumer Credit Index. 17% of those with car loan payments say these loans are a major burden, up from 11% who felt so in 2003. 39% now say the loans are a minor burden, down from 44% a year ago. One reason that the level of burden has increased on many consumers is that average car payments have risen because of higher car prices. 17% of those with car payments are spending between $500 and $700 a month, up from 10% who paid that amount in 2003. 43% (down from 50% a year ago) are paying between $300 and $500 a month, while 32% (unchanged from a year ago) are paying less than $300 a month. The level of pent-up demand for new vehicle purchases in the next six months remains similar to a year ago, with 8% of Americans very likely to buy a car (up from 6% in 2003) and 8% somewhat likely to purchase a new vehicle (down from 11% a year ago). "The results of the Cambridge Consumer Index wildcard question show that car loans and leases are becoming a greater burden on Americans' budgets, since the price of cars has been rising, resulting in larger monthly car payments for many. These larger payments are becoming an increasing burden on consumers, restraining them from purchasing other large ticket items that they would like to buy," says Jordan Goodman, spokesperson/financial analyst for the Cambridge Consumer Credit Index. More... biz.yahoo.com

To: zonder who wrote (14904)	11/5/2004 8:49:38 AM
From: TH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

zonder, A little more detail on the jobs report. GT TH * * * Payrolls surge by 337,000 in Oct. Storm cleanup helps boost hiring to best rate since March By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a surprising 337,000 in October, about double the expectation, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the largest gain in nonfarm payrolls since March. In addition, payroll gains in August and September were revised higher by a cumulative 115,000, according to the government survey of 400,000 workplaces. Read the full report. Bonds sold off drastically, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to 4.22 percent. The dollar and U.S. stock futures surged on the news. See full story. Meanwhile, a separate survey of 60,000 households showed both employment and unemployment rose during the month. The unemployment rate climbed a tenth to 5.5 percent. The labor participation rate was steady at 65.9 percent. Economists were expecting payrolls to grow by about 175,000 in October and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.4 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar. A part of October's hiring surge was due to rebuilding and cleanup activities in the Southeast following four hurricanes in August and September, said Kathleen Utgoff, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. She did not quantify the extent of hurricane-related hiring. Job growth has averaged 225,000 in the past three months, up from 141,000 in September. The economy needs about 150,000 new jobs a month to keep pace with population growth. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise its short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point next Wednesday to 2 percent. After that, the FOMC could pause at the late December meeting for technical reasons or to reassess how its four rate hikes this year have impacted the economy. October's strong job growth should reassure Fed officials that the economy remains on a self-sustaining path with no further need for extra stimulus from the Fed. Since the bottom in August 2003, the economy has added about 2.2 million jobs. Since President Bush took office in January 2001, payrolls are down by about 369,000. With three more months to go, it's likely job growth will be positive for Bush's first term. Average hourly wages increased 5 cents or 0.3 percent, to $15.83 in October. Average wages are up 2.6 percent in the past year, the strongest gain in 14 months, but barely keeping ahead of inflation. Average workweek was steady at 33.8 hours. Aggregate hours worked in the economy increased 0.3 percent. Manufacturing jobs decreased by 5,000, the second straight loss. The factory workweek declined a tenth of an hour and total hours worked in manufacturing fell 0.3 percent. Construction industries added 71,000 jobs, with rebuilding and cleanup a major factor. Services industries added 272,000 jobs, the most since April. Retail jobs increased by 21,000. Professional and business services increased by 97,000, including 48,000 temporary help jobs. The number of industries adding workers over the past three months dipped to 58.1 percent in October from 61 percent in September. Within manufacturing industries, 42.3 percent have added workers in the past three months, the lowest rate since December. marketwatch.com

To: zonder who wrote (14904)	11/5/2004 9:34:37 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK GDP up 0.3 pct in 3 months to end-Oct - NIESR Friday, November 5, 2004 1:45:16 PM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - Further weakness in the UK's manufacturing sector suggests that the economy is growing at its slowest rate for more than a year and a half, according to a leading think-tank The National Institute of Economic and Social Research reckons that GDP grew by only 0.3 pct in the three months to end-October from the previous three months, down from 0.4 pct in the three months to end-September That is the slowest rate of growth since the 0.2 pct recorded in the quarter to end-March 2003, NIESR said It added that there is "no sign yet" of a recovery from the economic weakness seen over the summer However NIESR continues to expect that the fourth quarter overall will show an improvement despite likely weakness in business surveys in the meantime If NIESR is correct, then economic growth will be way down on the economy's supposed trend rate of growth, which is estimated by the Bank of England to be around 2.5 pct on an annual basis or about 0.6 pct on a quarterly basis Today's estimates come in the wake of further disappointing manufacturing data from the Office of National Statistics, which has more or less put paid to any remaining expectations that the central bank will raise the cost of borrowing again soon Analysts said one of the reasons the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee did not raise interest rates another quarter point yesterday was the continued slump in industrial production The MPC has raised its key repo rate by a quarter point on five occasions since last November in an attempt to stamp down on inflationary pressures that were stemming from rampant consumer demand, particularly in the housing market, and above-trend economic growth But with house prices heading south and growth below trend, a number of Bank watchers are predicting that the next move in interest rates may in fact be down.

To: zonder who wrote (14904)	11/5/2004 9:45:58 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

UAL moves to eliminate pension plans AND asked for 735million in concessions from workers Just heard this on bloomberg Mish

To: zonder who wrote (14904)	11/5/2004 11:00:41 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

´Unquestionably stellar´ U.S. jobs report: Economy.com Friday, November 5, 2004 2:22:58 PM afxpress.com 'Unquestionably stellar' U.S. jobs report: Economy.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- "This report will go a long way toward alleviating concerns that the labor market is slowing," said economist Hasseb Ahmed of Economy.com after the Labor Department reported U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 337,000 in October. "Overall, this was an unquestionably stellar report." October's gains -- combined with upward revisions to August and September data -- "markedly change the recent trajectory of payroll growth." A rate hike from the Fed in November "is virtually assured and another 25 basis points in December is extremely likely."

To: zonder who wrote (14904)	11/5/2004 11:49:16 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euro jumps above 1.29 usd as bearish dollar sentiment outweighs strong US data Friday, November 5, 2004 3:48:15 PM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The euro jumped above 1.29 US dollars for the first time since February as the general bearish sentiment towards the dollar managed to outweigh much stronger than expected US jobs figures released this afternoon US non-farm payrolls showed a rise of 337,000 in October, the largest gain since March and double what the market had been expecting Immediately after the data, the euro slumped to 1.2763 usd from 1.2852 just before the figures were released but soon recovered, giving the dollar bears further excuse to sell the US currency "The market is only too willing to sell into any temporary strength in the dollar at the moment," said Steve Barrow, currency analyst at Bear Stearns In recent weeks, the dollar has been sold heavily on concerns over the US' huge current account and budget deficits The euro is now moving towards its record high against the dollar of 1.2929 reached in February Once it moves through this level it could move "quite impulsively" as the bulls on the dollar -- those who had focused on the potential strength of the US economy by comparison with the euro zone and Japan and on interest rate differentials -- change their course, Barrow said At 3.25 pm, the euro was trading at 1.2902 usd, after reaching a high of 1.2910 Against the yen, the dollar slipped to six-month lows, reaching a low of 105.59