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Politics : The Castle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (3995)	11/8/2004 8:42:27 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7936

Because people are thinking of the red/blue state map, and even more the red/blue county map, they want to portray the red/blue split in part as an urban-rural split. This is reinforced by the perception of Bush as the NASCAR loving gun toting country redneck and Kerry as the overeducated stiff urban intellectual. The problem is that the exit poll results don't necessarily support this. Note two things: 1. The suburbs drive the result. Rural and urban basically cancel each other out, with a larger urban than rural population but a larger relative Bush lead in rural. In both '00 and '04, the suburban vote split closely mirrors the total tally. 2. Bush won the popular vote because he improved about 3 points and added 4 million votes to his differential. This table says that nearly all of that came in the urban vote, with a whopping 10 point improvement that drove a 3 point improvement in the total. Because a lot of this urban improvement occurred in Blue states, the electoral college margin was still close because he ended up closing the gap in blue states rather than flipping many. camprrm.typepad.com