To: TideGlider who wrote (658477 ) 11/7/2004 10:54:06 AM From: Hope Praytochange Respond to of 769670 meyersgroup.com EMPLOYMENT GROWTH MOST RECENT STATISTIC: 2,066,000 GRADE: B- PERIOD COVERED: Oct. 04 Date Released: 11/5/04 Next Release: 12/3/04 Total Non-Farm Emp. 132,990,000 % Change 1 Year 1.58% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Analysis for the Housing Market By: Jonathan Dienhart Non-seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in October was 2,066,000 higher than in October 2003, a solid improvement from the previous month's gain of 1,804,000. Levels of seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 337,000, great news for financial markets which had expectations for growth in the area of 175,000. The jump in growth was attributed to improving economic growth conditions and a rebound in hiring after a slowdown in Florida due to the hurricanes. With economic growth expected to pick up in the fourth quarter, we anticipate employment growth to stay steady, over the coming months. It will likely not hit the strong growth levels every month that we saw in October, but should continue to track steadily upward. With unemployment remaining quite low at 5.5%, it's possible that labor supply will become a restraining force on growth figures as companies are forced to woo employees from other jobs, and not from unemployment lines. Long term, job growth will be key to maintaining housing demand once mortgage rates rise, and we advise keeping a close watch on local market conditions to gauge future demand. Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market By: Jonathan Dienhart Employment data covers civilian non-farm wage and salary workers. Self-employed persons, domestic servants, unpaid family workers, and members of the armed forces are excluded. These account for an additional 20% of the labor force. Employment estimates are based on establishment surveys for middle of reporting month from U.S. Department of Labor and state and local employment services. Full-time and part-time employment are derived from household data, adjusted to establishment data. Unemployment estimates are based on MSA of residence rather than MSA where last employed. The criterion emphasized in this section is "employment growth" - the increase in number of local jobs in the twelve month periods prior to the survey. Quarterly comparisons are not relevant because employment changes seasonally (Christmas season hiring, etc.). This provides a measure of whether the local economy is expanding or contracting. Because of frequent revisions, employment growth in the current and the prior period may not be strictly comparable. Local employment data are revised one month after the preliminary estimates, and are adjusted to revised benchmarks approximately one year later and two years later. We measure re-benchmarked data wherever possible. U.S. employment figures include an adjustment for underreporting of employment in new firms. Most local figures do not. Hence, local employment growth tends to be understated, especially in periods of recovery and in areas enjoying strong construction growth. In some areas, construction employment includes mining employment. More information can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics at:bls.gov