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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (15016)11/7/2004 11:26:41 AM
From: FiveFour  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
"most of the businesses that were started during the boom that were going to fail have already failed or are about to fail."

I would think that is typical in the early stages of a recovery and part of the reason that spreads have narrowed in junk debt in anticipation of lower default risk.

The underlying question is whether the US is really in a sustainable recovery or whether recessionary /deflationary pressures will overwhelm. Personally, I see an increasing risk of the latter, leading to further business failures and increased spreads on junk debt.



To: GraceZ who wrote (15016)11/7/2004 6:11:59 PM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
RE:"We're in a period where most of the businesses that were started during the boom that were going to fail have already failed or are about to fail.
The ones that were started during or right after the recession have a much higher probability of making it through anouther recession."

I gotta hand it to you. You seem to do a lot of internet research. Google?


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